《肯尼亚经济更新》，2024年6月：促进贸易以实现强劲增长和充满活力的就业创造（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights that Kenya's economic growth in 2023 experienced a cyclical rebound, with real GDP expanding by 5.6 percent, driven by recovery in the agricultural sector and resilience in services, despite challenges in the industrial sector [21][33] - The external sector faced significant challenges, with imports and exports contracting due to lower domestic demand and reduced global demand, leading to a narrowing of the current account deficit [22][41] - Trade integration is emphasized as a critical factor for economic growth and job creation, with Kenya's share of total trade consistently falling over the last decade, indicating a need for policy reforms to enhance export orientation and competitiveness [27][29] Summary by Sections Recent Economic Developments - Global economic growth slowed to 2.6 percent in 2023, with expectations of further decline in 2024, while Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rebound in 2024-25 [20][31] - Kenya's real GDP growth accelerated to 5.6 percent in 2023, supported by a recovery in agriculture and growth in the services sector, although the industrial sector faced deceleration [21][33] - The external sector experienced a contraction in both imports and exports, with the current account deficit narrowing by 29.2 percent year-on-year [22][41] Outlook and Risks - The growth outlook for Kenya is projected to slow to 5.0 percent in 2024 due to ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts and tight monetary policy, despite improvements in macroeconomic conditions [26] - Trade integration efforts are crucial for enhancing economic growth and job creation, with significant potential for export expansion in key sectors [27][29] Special Focus: Trade Integration - Kenya's trade patterns indicate that agriculture is the largest contributor to exports, but the country has underperformed in diversifying its export basket [27][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of revising trade and investment policies to foster export orientation and enhance productivity and innovation [29]