食品饮料行业月度点评：耐心蛰伏，等待机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector continues to experience a weak adjustment, with the index declining by 3.67% in May 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.99 percentage points [5][11] - Despite the overall decline, certain companies within the sector show stable revenue and profit growth, indicating defensive attributes [53] - The valuation of the food and beverage industry has reached its lowest level since 2018, with a TTM PE of 20.99 [5][20] Monthly Review - The food and beverage index fell by 3.67% in May 2024, ranking 22nd among 31 primary industries [11] - The snack sector, which had previously outperformed, saw a significant correction with a decline exceeding 10% [11] - The beverage and dairy sectors performed relatively better, with declines of 2.52% and 1.42% respectively [11] Northbound Capital Situation - In May, northbound capital experienced a net outflow of approximately 1.4 billion yuan from the food and beverage sector, following substantial inflows in previous months [15][17] - Major stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye saw significant net purchases, while companies like Yili and Haitian saw reductions in holdings [17][18] Economic Data Tracking - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,211 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, but below market expectations [6][26] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with food prices experiencing a decline of 2.0% [28][30] - Essential consumption categories like grain and oil, beverages, and tobacco maintained strong growth, with year-on-year increases of 9.3%, 6.5%, and 7.7% respectively [35][37][40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty performance stocks that have become more attractive in terms of valuation after recent declines [53] - Long-term stock selection should prioritize absolute leading companies at valuation bottoms, high dividend stocks, and growth-oriented stocks with favorable valuations [53]