汽车行业：24年数据点评系列之六：乘用车：5月终端需求表现强于正常季节性

Industry Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - Stronger-than-seasonal demand in May: May 2024 passenger vehicle sales (excluding imports) reached 1.663 million units, down 3.0% YoY but up 9.5% MoM. Cumulative sales for Jan-May 2024 were 7.949 million units, up 7.8% YoY. Historically, May sales typically show a MoM decline of 3.6% in normal years and a slight increase of 0.5% in policy-stimulated years, indicating stronger-than-seasonal demand [1][8] - Inventory at reasonable levels: As of May 2024, the passenger vehicle inventory stood at 4.138 million units, with a dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio of 2.3, indicating a relatively healthy inventory level [1] - Strong performance of new energy vehicles (NEVs): NEV sales in May reached 794,000 units, up 41.8% YoY and 15.6% MoM. The penetration rate of NEVs reached 47.7% in May, up 15.1 percentage points YoY. Cumulative NEV sales for Jan-May 2024 were 3.215 million units, up 41.4% YoY [1][25] - Rising market share of Chinese brands: Chinese brands accounted for 56.5% of the passenger vehicle market in Jan-May 2024, up 5.3 percentage points from 2023, driven by the growth of NEVs [1][21] Key Company Performance - BYD: BYD's market share in May was 15.9%, down 0.4 percentage points MoM. Key models like Qin PLUS, Han, and Tang showed significant growth in PHEV penetration [1][34] - Geely and Changan: Geely and Changan held market shares of 7.5% and 5.4% respectively in May, with NEV penetration rates of 51.0% and 49.7% [21][41] - Ideal Auto: Ideal L6 achieved an 8.0% market share in the high-end SUV segment in May [34] Investment Recommendations - Passenger vehicle manufacturers: Recommended companies include Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors (H/A), and SAIC Motor. Companies to watch include BYD, Li Auto, Leapmotor, and XPeng, as well as Huawei and Xiaomi's automotive ventures [53] - Auto parts suppliers: Recommended companies include Nexteer, Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery, Minth Group, Baolong Automotive, Yinlun, Fuyao Glass (A/H), Jifeng Auto Parts, Bethel, IKD, Tuopu Group, Xusheng Group, Keboda, Huayu Automotive, Shangsheng Electronics, and Ningbo Huaxiang [53] - Automotive services: Recommended company is China Automotive Engineering Research Institute [53] Regional and Segment Analysis - Regional NEV penetration: In May 2024, NEV penetration rates were highest in South China (52.0%) and East China (50.3%), while Northeast China had the lowest penetration at 36.6% [41][44] - Price segment analysis: NEV penetration in the 100,000-200,000 RMB price range reached 40% in Q1 2024, while the 200,000+ RMB segment saw a penetration rate of 35% [40]