轻工制造行业半年度策略：优选低估绩优龙头，关注出口景气向上

Industry Overview - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the broader market, with the CITIC Light Industry Manufacturing Index dropping by 17.64% as of June 21, 2024, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, and ChiNext Index by 18.42pct, 19.52pct, and 10.47pct respectively [2] - Industry valuations are at historically low levels, with sub-sectors like home furnishings, entertainment light industry, and other light industries at 0.27%, 6.35%, and 0.09% percentiles respectively [2] - Industry fundamentals showed revenue pressure in 2023 but improved in Q1 2024, with gross and net profit margins recovering to 20.81% and 4.67% respectively in 2023, and further improving in Q1 2024 [2] Paper Industry - Waste paper prices remained low in H1 2024 due to weak demand, with yellow board paper prices at 1,438 yuan/ton as of June 21, 2024, down 10.07% from end-2023 [9] - Wood pulp prices rose to mid-high historical levels due to supply constraints, with prices expected to stabilize as new capacity comes online in H2 2024 [9] - Boxboard and corrugated paper prices declined in H1 2024 due to weak domestic demand, but supply pressure is expected to ease with slower capacity expansion [10] - Cultural paper demand remained relatively stable, with prices peaking in March-April 2024 before declining, but expected to remain firm in H2 2024 [10] - Leading paper companies maintained stable profitability, with specialty paper companies showing stronger performance [11] Home Furnishings Industry - The real estate sector's ongoing adjustment in 2024 has pressured the home furnishings industry, but policy support and rising second-hand home transactions are supporting demand [3] - Domestic sales showed moderate recovery, with furniture manufacturing revenue and profits growing in 2024, while exports turned positive with double-digit growth [3] - Industry valuations are at historical lows, with the home furnishings sector's PE(TTM) at 19.27x as of June 18, 2024, in the 0.82% percentile [13] - Industry concentration is increasing, with CR10 rising from 13.01% in 2021 to 16.00% in 2023, led by companies like Oppein Home and Sophia [13] - The integrated home furnishing model is becoming a key industry trend, with penetration expected to reach 24.1% in 2023 and market size projected at 947.3 billion yuan [14] Export Sector - Light industry exports have rebounded since H2 2023, with strong growth in soft furniture and home furnishing exports continuing into 2024 [5] - U.S. housing demand is recovering, with existing home sales improving and furniture wholesaler inventories at low levels, suggesting potential restocking demand [5] - Cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses are driving export growth, with over 2,500 overseas warehouses established nationwide [5] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Synchronized with Market" rating for the industry [5] - For the paper sector, focus on leading companies with integrated forest-pulp-paper operations, such as Sun Paper [5] - In home furnishings, recommend undervalued leaders with strong brands and integrated home furnishing models, including Oppein Home and Sophia [5] - For export-oriented companies, suggest focusing on branded exporters with self-operated overseas warehouses, such as Loctek and ZIOTECH [5]