分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 19% 25% 31% 2024.10 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,916.33 | 1.36 | | | 深证成指 | | 13,077.32 | 2.06 | | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,607.87 | 1.53 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,447.93 | 1.64 | | | 中证 | 500 | 7,185.6 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 通信半导体领涨 A 股震荡上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2025-10-20 《市场分析：防御行业领涨 A 股宽幅震荡》 2025-10-17 《市场分析：金融汽车行业领涨 A 股小幅上 行》 2025-10-16 11707 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 21 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周二（10 月 21 日）A 股市场高开高走、震荡上行，早盘股指高开后 震荡上行，盘中沪指在 3912 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震荡， 尾盘再度上行，盘中通信设备、电子元件、半导体以及消费电子等 行业表现较好；贵金属、煤炭、燃气以及银行等行业表现较弱，沪 指全天基本呈现单边震荡上行的运行特征。创业板市场周二震荡上 扬，创业板成分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研 ...

证券研究报告-季报点评 增持(维持) 市场数据(2025-10-20) | 收盘价(元) | 55.62 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 72.24/29.37 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 4,538.22 | | 市净率(倍) | 5.85 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 169.29 | | 基础数据(2025-09-30) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 9.50 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 0.77 | | 毛利率(%) | 30.54 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 11.53 | | 资产负债率(%) | 42.05 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 30,437.64/30,437.63 | | B 股/H 股(万股) | 0.00/0.00 | 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 -9% 17% 42% 68% 93% 119% 144% 170% 2024.10 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 中宠股份 沪深300 相关报告 《中宠股份(002891)公司点评报告：产品结构 持续优化，2025Q1 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in various sectors, with growth in technology and healthcare industries while traditional sectors face challenges [4][5][12] - The macroeconomic environment shows a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters, indicating a stable economic backdrop [7] - The report suggests that the A-share market is experiencing a phase of consolidation with structural opportunities emerging, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [6][8] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,863.89, with a slight increase of 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.98% to 12,813.21 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 15.74 and 46.77, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [6][10] - Trading volume in the A-share market remains robust, with a daily average exceeding 17,000 billion, suggesting strong investor interest [6][10] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with a notable decline in certain sub-sectors such as prepared foods and health products [12][14] - The semiconductor industry is on an upward trajectory, with a 13.86% increase in September, driven by strong demand for AI-related hardware [19][20] - The telecommunications sector is seeing growth in 5G services, with a significant increase in mobile data usage and a focus on digital transformation in key industries [23][24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as soft drinks, health products, and baked goods within the food and beverage industry for potential investment opportunities [14][39] - In the semiconductor space, companies involved in AI infrastructure and storage solutions are highlighted as key areas for investment due to rising demand [21][26] - The telecommunications sector is advised for investment, particularly in companies that are leveraging AI and digital technologies to enhance service offerings [26][27]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Market Perform" investment rating, indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to +10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][59]. Core Insights - Since 2021, the revenue growth rate of the food and beverage industry has shown a stepwise decline, with a further slowdown in the first half of 2025, recording a revenue growth of 2.47%, which is a decrease of 12.9, 4.17, 7.38, and 2.79 percentage points compared to the same periods in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [9][10]. - The industry has experienced a decline in inventory turnover rates, indicating a slowdown in sales driven by insufficient consumer demand [23]. - The gross profit margin of the food and beverage sector peaked in 2024 but began to decline in the first half of 2025 due to the expiration of cost advantages, with the gross profit margin recorded at 51.32%, down 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [26][52]. - The report highlights a significant change in expense allocation among listed companies, with a reduction in sales expenses and a focus on internal control management, leading to a notable decrease in management expense ratios [42][44]. - Profitability indicators for the food and beverage sector, which had been rising since 2021 due to cost advantages, began to decline in the first half of 2025, with net profit margins recorded at 22.67% [52]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The food and beverage industry has seen a continuous decline in revenue growth since 2021, with specific segments like snacks and soft drinks showing positive growth, while others like prepared foods and health products have experienced significant declines [10][11][15]. Inventory Turnover - The inventory turnover rate has decreased from 1.37 in 2021 to 1.11 in 2025, indicating a slowdown in sales activity attributed to weak consumer demand [23][25]. Gross Profit Margin - The gross profit margin has been on an upward trend until 2024, but it has started to decline in 2025 due to rising costs outpacing revenue growth, with a recorded margin of 51.32% [26][27]. Expense Management - There has been a shift in expense management, with a decrease in sales expenses and a focus on internal controls, resulting in lower management expense ratios [42][44]. Profitability Trends - Profitability indicators have started to decline in 2025, with net profit margins at 22.67%, reflecting the impact of slowing revenue growth and rising costs [52].

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the domestic and international markets, with A-shares experiencing fluctuations and sector-specific leadership in various industries [9][10][11][12][13][14]. - The semiconductor industry is noted for its strong growth, driven by AI applications and increasing demand for storage solutions, with significant price increases expected for DRAM and NAND Flash [20][21]. - The telecommunications sector is undergoing transformation with the approval of eSIM technology, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and expand business scenarios for major operators [23][26]. Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,839.76, down 1.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.04% to 12,688.94 [4]. - The A-share market has shown a wide range of fluctuations, with various sectors such as precious metals, aviation, and gas performing well, while sectors like semiconductors and consumer electronics lagged [10][11][12][13][14]. International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced declines [5]. - The global semiconductor sales continue to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 21.7% in August, indicating a robust demand for semiconductor products [20]. Industry Analysis - The agricultural sector, particularly the livestock industry, is facing price declines, with the average price of live pigs dropping by 5.58% month-on-month and 31.46% year-on-year [15][16]. - The AI industry is experiencing significant advancements with the introduction of sparse attention mechanisms, which enhance processing efficiency and model performance [17][18][19][33][34][35]. - The petrochemical industry is showing signs of recovery, with a 5.02% increase in the basic chemical industry index in September, outperforming the broader market indices [29][30][31][40]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as telecommunications, AI applications, and semiconductor industries for potential investment opportunities, given their growth prospects and market dynamics [26][27][28][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes and market conditions that could impact these sectors [10][12][14].

Core Insights - The report highlights the positive momentum in the A-share market, with various sectors such as finance, automotive, and pharmaceuticals leading the gains, indicating a potential for investment opportunities in these areas [4][8][10] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of 55.02% and a strong demand for AI-related hardware, suggesting a favorable outlook for investments in this sector [16][17] - The telecommunications sector is also showing resilience, with a focus on eSIM technology and a steady increase in telecom business revenue, indicating potential growth opportunities for companies in this field [19][20][23] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,916.23 with a slight increase of 0.10%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.25% [3] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are at 16.00 and 48.45 respectively, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][10] Industry Analysis - The semiconductor industry saw a 13.86% increase in September, outperforming the broader market indices, with significant growth in integrated circuits and semiconductor equipment [16] - The telecommunications sector's revenue for the first eight months of 2025 reached 11,821 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, with a notable increase in 5G mobile users [20][21] - The lithium battery sector reported a 17.12% increase in its index, driven by a 24.63% year-on-year growth in electric vehicle sales, indicating strong demand for battery technology [25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as automotive, telecommunications, and semiconductors for potential investment opportunities, given their current performance and growth prospects [4][19][25] - In the semiconductor space, companies involved in AI hardware and storage solutions are highlighted as key areas for investment due to rising demand and price increases in memory products [17][18] - The telecommunications sector is recommended for investment, particularly companies involved in eSIM technology and those with strong dividend yields [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor industry [2]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a continued upward cycle, driven by strong demand for AI computing hardware and increasing capital expenditures from major cloud service providers [9][32]. - In September 2025, the domestic semiconductor industry saw a significant increase of 13.86%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 3.20% [14]. - Global semiconductor sales continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 21.7% in August 2025, marking 22 consecutive months of growth [25][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In September 2025, the semiconductor sector (CITIC) rose by 13.86%, with integrated circuits up by 11.86% and semiconductor equipment up by 27.27% [14][16]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 12.36% in September 2025, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq 100, which rose by 5.40% [22][24]. 2. Sales Growth - Global semiconductor sales reached approximately $64.9 billion in August 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.7% and a month-on-month increase of 4.4% [25]. - The Chinese semiconductor market achieved sales of $17.63 billion in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [26]. 3. Price Trends - The prices of DRAM and NAND Flash continued to rise, with DRAM prices expected to increase by 13-18% in Q4 2025 [9][32]. - Major storage manufacturers, including SanDisk, Micron, and Samsung, have announced price increases for memory products due to rising demand [9]. 4. Capital Expenditure - Major North American cloud service providers, including Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, reported a 69% year-on-year increase in capital expenditures in Q2 2025 [9]. - Domestic internet companies, such as Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent, saw a 168% increase in capital expenditures in the same period [9]. 5. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the semiconductor market, with a projected global sales increase of 11.2% in 2025, reaching approximately $700.9 billion [27]. - The demand for AI computing infrastructure is expected to drive significant growth in the semiconductor sector, particularly in memory and logic markets [27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [41]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the introduction of sparse attention mechanisms, particularly through DeepSeek, significantly enhances the development potential of the AI industry [8][37]. - DeepSeek's advancements in attention mechanisms, including Native Sparse Attention (NSA) and DeepSeek Sparse Attention (DSA), are pivotal in improving model performance and efficiency [18][23][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Relationship Between Attention Mechanism and Large Model Development - The attention mechanism, introduced to improve information processing efficiency, has become a core component of large models, addressing the limitations of traditional recurrent neural networks [11]. - Sparse attention reduces computational complexity from O(L²) to sub-quadratic levels, thus overcoming memory and computational bottlenecks [11]. 2. DeepSeek's Technological Improvements in Attention Mechanism - DeepSeek has made significant contributions in three main areas: Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA), Native Sparse Attention (NSA), and DeepSeek Sparse Attention (DSA) [12][18][23]. - MLA reduces memory usage by approximately 90% while maintaining model performance, significantly lowering training costs [16]. - NSA enhances long text processing speed by 11 times and achieves performance comparable to traditional models [18]. - DSA improves training and inference efficiency, leading to substantial cost reductions for model usage [23]. 3. DSA and NSA Unlock Greater Development Potential for the AI Industry - The integration of DSA and NSA allows for expanded model context and improved computational efficiency, which are crucial for meeting the demands of multi-modal applications [33][37]. - The trend towards longer input and output lengths necessitates innovative approaches to model training and performance enhancement [33].

Market Overview - On October 16, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3931 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.23 points, up 0.10%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13086.41 points, down 0.25%[9] - Total trading volume for both markets was 19,489 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[3] Sector Performance - Strong performers included banking, automotive, communication equipment, and coal industries, while precious metals, small metals, wind power equipment, and steel sectors lagged[3] - Over 70% of stocks in the two markets declined, with coal, insurance, shipping ports, banking, and education sectors showing the highest gains[8] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.00 times and 48.45 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3] - Recent trading volumes have consistently exceeded 20 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift of household savings towards capital markets, providing a continuous source of incremental funds[3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain stable with slight upward trends, influenced by upcoming policy changes and external market conditions[3] - Investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid blind chasing of high prices, focusing instead on structural optimization to seize market opportunities[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances that could impact recovery[4]