券商板块月报：券商板块2024年5月回顾及6月前瞻

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 over the next six months [27]. Core Viewpoints - The brokerage index experienced a volatile decline in May, reaching a new low for the year by the end of the month, with the index down 3.87%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.19 percentage points [4][6]. - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.144 and 1.208, closing at 1.144 at the end of May [10][12]. - The overall market environment for the brokerage industry is expected to improve gradually, with a focus on high-quality development and the potential for a recovery cycle in profitability [25]. Summary by Sections 1. May Market Review - The brokerage index showed a downward trend throughout May, with a significant drop in trading volume, leading to a median level of brokerage business activity not seen in the past 12 months [4][15]. - The average daily trading volume in May was 847.9 billion yuan, down 7.48% month-on-month [15][17]. 2. Key Factors Affecting Monthly Performance - The performance of equity markets showed signs of weakening, while fixed income markets stabilized, leading to a positive outlook for proprietary trading returns in the brokerage sector [12][19]. - Margin financing balances slightly increased to 1.5265 trillion yuan, marking a 0.96% rise month-on-month, contributing positively to monthly performance [19][20]. - The total amount of investment banking business declined for the second consecutive month due to a drop in both equity and debt financing [22][24]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a cautious approach towards directional equity trading while focusing on fixed income investments, which are expected to contribute positively to monthly returns [25][26]. - The brokerage sector is advised to pay attention to leading brokerages and quality small and medium-sized brokerages for potential trading opportunities [25].