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轮胎行业月报（2024年5月）：外贸需求向好支撑轮胎景气度延续
Donghai Securities·2024-06-26 06:30

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for the tire industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [75]. Core Insights - The tire industry is experiencing a recovery in production and demand, supported by strong export performance and stable domestic consumption [70][71]. - Key raw material prices remain high, impacting production costs, but the overall demand for tires is expected to grow due to increased exports and stable domestic needs [68][70]. Summary by Sections Raw Material Cost - Major raw material prices are maintaining high levels, with May 2024 prices for butadiene at 11,357.29 CNY/ton (down 1.35% MoM, up 48.06% YoY), natural rubber at 1,700.75 USD/ton (up 3.66% MoM, up 23.65% YoY), and styrene-butadiene rubber at 13,481.25 CNY/ton (up 1.27% MoM, up 16.27% YoY) [4][5]. Production - In May 2024, China's rubber tire production reached 93.4 million units, a YoY increase of 9.47% and a MoM increase of 4.42% [19]. - The average operating rate for semi-steel tires was 78.98%, slightly down from the previous month but up YoY, while the operating rate for all-steel tires was 58.86%, showing a decline [27]. Demand - Exports of new inflatable rubber tires in May 2024 totaled 5.638 million units, reflecting a YoY increase of 4.76% and a MoM increase of 3.56% [24]. - The demand for natural rubber in China was 600,000 tons in May 2024, down 2.02% MoM but up 1.61% YoY, with production rising significantly [7]. Industry News - Continental's tire factory expansion in Hefei has commenced production, expected to reach an annual capacity of 18 million units by 2027 [61]. - Yokohama Rubber is expanding its passenger tire business in India with a loan of 82 million USD to enhance production capacity [63]. Monthly Outlook and Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on companies with established overseas production capabilities and strong market positions, such as Sailun Tire, General Motors, and Linglong Tire, as they are well-positioned for growth in the global market [70].