Haitong Securities·2024-06-26 06:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance was negatively impacted by declining lithium prices and a tax lawsuit, resulting in a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 77.4%, and a net loss of 3.9 billion yuan [5][6] - The company achieved record lithium production, showcasing the resource endowment of the Greenbush mine, with a total lithium resource of approximately 17.77 million tons by the end of 2023 [6][7] - The adjustment of lithium pricing mechanisms is expected to restore profitability in lithium salts, with plans to increase lithium hydroxide production capacity [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, down 77.4% year-on-year, and a net loss of 3.9 billion yuan [5][7] - The company’s lithium concentrate production reached 1.522 million tons in 2023, an increase of 12.9%, while sales were 845,000 tons, up 11.3% [6][7] - The company’s lithium salt production capacity is projected to reach 143,800 tons with ongoing projects [6][9] Production and Capacity - The company has established five lithium compound production bases, with an annual capacity of 88,800 tons, and plans to build additional lithium hydroxide projects [6][9] - By the end of 2023, the company had a lithium salt inventory of 13,186 tons, a significant increase of 350% [6][7] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of -0.53 yuan in 2024, followed by 1.83 yuan in 2025 and 2.63 yuan in 2026, with net asset values projected at 30.84 yuan, 32.67 yuan, and 35.30 yuan respectively [6][11] - The estimated reasonable value range for the stock is between 43.18 yuan and 49.34 yuan, based on a PB valuation of 1.4-1.6 times [6][11]