2024年下半年宏观经济展望：外贸-工业链条呈亮点，通缩风险犹存

Economic Growth - In Q1 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1% from the previous quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.6%[3] - The contribution of the secondary industry to GDP has improved, indicating a positive trend in economic growth[6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth has improved year-on-year, but the growth rate of fixed capital formation has decreased when adjusted for price factors[5] - Real estate investment continues to decline, with housing sales and land purchases showing no signs of recovery[88] Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) - CPI showed low positive growth, with pork prices contributing to a slight increase in the month-on-month growth rate[8] - PPI growth rate continues to narrow year-on-year, indicating mixed trends in industrial resource prices[10] Trade Dynamics - The trade balance is improving, with net exports of goods and services showing a positive contribution to GDP growth[36] - Service trade deficits are expanding, nearing pre-pandemic levels, with travel accounting for 87% of the deficit[122] Government Consumption - Government consumption has declined, with public fiscal expenditure growth at 3.5% year-on-year as of April 2024, down from 5.4% in 2023[65]