25 年前三季度金银珠宝社零同增 11.5%，关注双十一销售表现 ——新消费行业周报（20251013-1017） [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 一、行情回顾：本周（2025.10.13-2025.10.17），A股 SW商贸零售行 业指数下跌 0.45%，而沪深 300 下跌 2.22%，上证指数下跌 1.47%。 商贸零售在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅排名第 6 位。 二、核心逻辑： 黄金珠宝：我们认为黄金长期避险和投资优势凸显，随着美联储降息 预期升温、贸易摩擦扰动带动金价上涨，黄金珠宝需求预计持续增 长，古法金与 IP 金饰引领新潮流，25 年国内黄金珠宝公司有望实现销 量提升、业绩改善。 前三季度金银珠宝类零售额同比+11.5%，关注黄金珠宝双十一销售表 现。据国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 1-9 月我国限额以上金银珠宝类 零售额 2768 亿元，同比+11.5%；单 9 月实现零售额 293 亿元，同比 +9.7%。据钱江晚报 10 月 17 日消息显示，伦敦现货黄金价格已经连 续 5 日创历史新高，10 月 17 日在亚洲交易时段一度 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The storage industry is expected to enter a super cycle driven by price increases and AI demand, with a significant mismatch between supply and demand leading to shortages [4] - Major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are shifting production from traditional DDR4 products to higher-margin DDR5 and HBM products, while AI server demand is driving a surge in storage needs [4] - OpenAI's recent agreement with Samsung and SK Hynix for a monthly supply of 900,000 wafers represents about 40% of global DRAM production, indicating strong demand [4] - The chairman of ADATA anticipates that the fourth quarter will mark the beginning of severe storage shortages, with major cloud service providers driving up DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices [4] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Global storage chip prices are continuously rising, with recent price increases in Flash Wafer exceeding 10% [7] - Samsung plans to raise DRAM prices by 15%-30% and NAND flash prices by 5%-10% in Q4, while Micron has increased prices by approximately 20% [7] - Samsung's Q3 performance showed a 32% year-on-year increase in operating profit, reaching 12.1 trillion KRW (approximately 8.5 billion USD), driven by strong DRAM and NAND flash demand [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry and recommends focusing on the storage supply chain, highlighting companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Jiangbo Long, Demingli, Shannon Semiconductor, and Baiwei Storage [5] - Other beneficial stocks include Lianyun Technology, Saiteng Co., and Huahai Chengke [5]

[Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 [行业Table_Industry] : 医药生物 日期: shzqdatemark 2025年10月21日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 张林晚 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686155 | | E-mail: | zhanglinwan@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870523010001 | [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -10% -6% -1% 3% 7% 11% 16% 20% 24% 10/24 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 医药生物 沪深300 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《广生堂、特宝生物乙肝治疗领域再传佳 音，关注适应症药物研发进展》 ——2025 年 10 月 14 日 《甘李药业签署巴西国家级合作协议，订 单金额有望超 30 亿元》 ——2025 年 09 月 29 日 《我国首个脑机接口医疗器械行业标准发 布，科研领域再迎新突破》 — ...

[Table_Stock] 仕佳光子（688313） | [行业Table_Industry] : | 通信 | | --- | --- | | 日期: | shzqdatemark 2025年10月21日 | | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 刘京昭 | | E-mail: | liujingzhao@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870523040005 | | 联系人: | 杨昕东 | [Table_Rating] 买入（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 投资摘要 | 最新收盘价（元） | 58.88 | | --- | --- | | 12mth A 股价格区间（元） | 13.62-86.17 | | 总股本（百万股） | 458.80 | | 无限售 A 股/总股本 | 98.91% | | 流通市值（亿元） | 267.20 | [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年股票与沪深 300 比较 -9% 57% 122% 187% 253% 318% 384% 449% 514% 10/24 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 仕 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the storage industry [2] Core Views - The demand for storage is expected to grow due to AI-driven needs, with a continuation of the current storage cycle [4] - Prices for DRAM and NAND are projected to rise, with significant increases announced by major manufacturers [2] - Supply constraints are evident as overseas manufacturers adjust production capacity, leading to potential shortages [3] Summary by Sections Price Outlook - Since September, a new round of price increases has been initiated in the storage sector, with SanDisk raising NAND product prices by over 10% and Western Digital planning to increase HDD prices [2] - For Q4 2025, DRAM prices are expected to rise by 15% to 30%, while NAND prices are projected to increase by 5% to 10% [2] Supply Dynamics - Major manufacturers like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix are implementing production cuts due to weak NAND demand and price pressures [3] - There is a shift in production focus from traditional DRAM to higher-margin products like DDR5 and HBM, indicating a strategic realignment in response to market conditions [3] Demand Drivers - The demand for SSDs is increasing due to a shortage of HDDs, driven by AI applications requiring high-speed data processing [4] - The North American market is experiencing a significant increase in server NAND demand as HDD supply tightens [4] - Server DRAM demand is expected to grow rapidly, particularly for DDR5 products, with CSPs projected to significantly increase their DRAM procurement by 2026 [4] - The HBM market is forecasted to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 33% until 2030, potentially surpassing DRAM revenue [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Demingli, Baiwei Storage, and Purun Co., as they are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in the storage industry [6]

立讯展出 AR 眼镜和陪护机器人，看好 端侧 AI 产业趋势 ——AI 消费电子行业观点报告 [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 我们认为全球端侧 AI 市场持续增长，AI 眼镜是端侧 AI 最佳硬件载体 之一，产业趋势有望持续成长。 立讯精密云雀二代引领 AR眼镜产业化新纪元。2025 年 9 月，在 25 年 第 26 届中国国际光电博览会（CIOE2025）上，立讯精密凭借其出色 的"云雀二代"AR 眼镜产品矩阵，成为展会焦点，展示了立讯精密在 AR 眼镜领域的深厚技术积淀。公司自主研发搭载 MicroLED+光波导的 AR智能眼镜方案，展台面积也是去年的 3倍。此外，公司还展出 PVG 单绿 AR 眼镜和智能家庭陪护机器人。 立讯作为传统的消费电子 OEM巨头，正在积极布局智能眼镜方向。不 仅在为星纪魅族 StarV Air 第一代及阿里夸克 AI 智能眼镜提供组装代工 服务，也正在往纵深发展，成为智能眼镜产业的更综合型的 ODM 服务 商。 从长期来看，我们认为 AI 智能眼镜具备以下 3 点成长逻辑： （1）行业爆发在即：根据 WellsennX ...

[Table_I 日期 ndustry] : shzqdatemark 2025年10月20日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 张河生 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686158 | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870523100004 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： | 《不确定性仍存，避险情绪提升》 | | --- | | ——2025 年 10月 14日 | | 《权益慢牛不息，金价上涨催化延续》 | | ——2025 年 09月 30日 | | 《高风险偏好有望维持》 | | ——2025 年 09月 22日 | 中美经贸关系缓和，重要会议护航 ——固收&宏观周报（20251013-20251019） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 美股三大指数上涨，恒生指数下跌。 过去一周（20251013-20251019），纳斯达克、标普 500 指数与 道琼斯工业平均指数分别变化 2.14%、1.70%与 1.56%，纳斯达克中 国科技股指数变化-7.27% ...

[Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -7% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 35% 41% 10/24 12/24 03/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 商贸零售 沪深300 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 黄金避险投资优势，看好黄金消费趋势 ——新消费行业周报（20251006-1010） 一、行情回顾：本周（2025.10.06-2025.10.10），A股 SW商贸零售行 业指数下滑 0.40%，而沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，上证指数上涨 0.37%。 商贸零售在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅排名第 20 位。 [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 [行业Table_Industry] : 商贸零售 日期: shzqdatemark 2025年10月18日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 杜洋 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686169 | | E-mail: | duyang@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[11] - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline, making it the primary factor affecting the CPI[12] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points, indicating stable demand[14] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[13] - PPI remained stable month-on-month, showing no change, while the year-on-year decline was influenced by a low base from the previous year[19] - Key industries such as coal processing and black metal smelting saw a reduction in their negative impact on PPI, decreasing by approximately 0.34 percentage points compared to the previous month[21] Group 3: Policy Implications - The low CPI and PPI levels create room for policy adjustments, suggesting the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support economic recovery[30] - The report emphasizes the importance of timely and effective policy measures to enhance economic momentum and fully leverage policy effects[30] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-US policies[31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry [1] Core Views - The machinery equipment sector is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with a recent decline of 0.62% in the CITIC machinery industry index, ranking 21st among all primary industries [4][17] - The report highlights significant developments in various sub-sectors, including controlled nuclear fusion, semiconductor equipment, and humanoid robots, indicating potential investment opportunities [5][6][7] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The CITIC machinery industry index fell by 0.59% over two trading days, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [17] - Specific sub-sectors showed varied performance, with engineering machinery down by 1.17% and transportation equipment up by 1.67% [18] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Engineering machinery PMI for September 2025 is at 49.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [23] - Forklift sales in August 2025 reached 118,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.4% [24] - Excavator sales in August 2025 totaled 17,000 units, up 12.8% year-on-year [24] 3. Semiconductor Equipment - Global semiconductor sales in August 2025 were $64.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.7% [46] - China's semiconductor sales reached $17.63 billion, up 12.4% year-on-year [46] 4. Humanoid Robots - The report discusses the launch of Figure 03, a third-generation humanoid robot, which features significant advancements in perception and decision-making capabilities [7][8] 5. Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies for investment include: 1. Engineering Machinery: SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, Liugong, and Hengli Hydraulic [9] 2. Semiconductor Equipment: North Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and Jinchuan Technology [9] 3. Humanoid Robots: Focus on high-tech components with low domestic production rates [9]