2024年下半年宏观经济展望：外贸：工业链条呈亮点，通缩风险犹存

Consumption and Savings - Social retail sales growth remains low, with a marginal improvement in month-on-month performance observed[5] - Cumulative year-on-year growth in social retail sales continues to decline, with a potential stabilization noted in May[7] - The growth rate of household income and savings deposits is converging, indicating a cautious consumer sentiment[6] Government and Large Consumption - Government consumption accounted for 30% of final consumption expenditure in 2022, with a corresponding decline in growth rate noted[9] - Large consumption categories, such as automobiles (28% share) and textiles/apparel (8% share), have seen significant year-on-year growth declines in 2024[28] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth rebounded in the first quarter but has since declined, with real estate investment continuing to show a widening decline[13] - Manufacturing investment has significantly improved, with most sub-sectors showing positive year-on-year growth[32] Trade and Economic Outlook - The trade surplus has remained stable, with improvements in goods trade noted, while service trade deficits have expanded close to pre-pandemic levels[61] - China's GDP growth in Q1 2024 was 5.3%, supported by external trade, with net exports contributing positively to growth[86]