2024年6月中国经济数据市场提前预期：经济回暖，货币平稳

Economic Outlook - The market consensus indicates a stable and warming economic outlook for China, with median and average growth expectations for consumption and investment improving compared to May 2024 data[3] - Industrial production and trade show mixed results, suggesting a cautious but optimistic view on economic performance[3] Inflation Trends - CPI forecast for June 2024 is expected to range from -0.3% to 0.8%, with both median and average predictions at 0.4%, indicating a consensus on stable but gradually rising consumer prices[4] - PPI is expected to continue its slow decline, influenced by base effects, but does not indicate a definitive inflationary trend[4] Monetary Policy Expectations - The prevailing expectation is for continued monetary policy easing, with a potential 5 basis point cut in repo rates and a 25 basis point reserve requirement ratio reduction likely in the first half of 2024[5] - The low inflation environment provides room for sustained monetary easing, supporting the notion of a stable monetary growth outlook[5] Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and its escalation are altering the international financial landscape, potentially impacting China's economic conditions[6][25] - Increased geopolitical tensions may lead to unexpected changes in China's monetary policy due to rising inflation and economic uncertainties[19]