证券行业2024年中期策略：顺应新监管环境，迎接供给侧改革

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The securities sector underperformed the market in H1 2024, with the broker index down 9% as of June 20, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices [2][13] - Business pressures are easing marginally, with a recovery in IPO activities since June, although the primary market saw significant declines in the first five months of 2024 [2][3] - The "New National Nine Articles" policy is enhancing the investability of the capital market, establishing a robust regulatory framework aimed at high-quality development [2][3][35] - The industry landscape is optimizing under new regulations, creating potential investment opportunities, particularly in mergers and acquisitions among leading securities firms [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. H1 2024 Securities Sector Review - The securities sector's performance was weaker than the market, with only 8 out of 46 A-share brokers seeing stock price increases by June 20 [13] - The average decline for the sector was -8.2%, with the top three performers being Zhejiang Securities (+10.26%), Guosen Securities (+7.35%), and China Merchants Securities (+4.18%) [13][16] 2. New National Nine Articles Enhancing Capital Market Investability - The "1+N" policy framework is rapidly being implemented, focusing on improving the quality of listed companies and enhancing regulatory measures [2][35] - The policy aims to stabilize the capital market and promote high-quality development, with a focus on long-term investments and risk prevention [2][37] 3. Industry Landscape Optimization Under New Regulatory Environment - Leading brokers are showing resilience under stricter regulations, with a focus on improving investor returns and optimizing capital structures [2][3] - The industry is expected to see enhanced profitability and shareholder experience due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2][3] 4. Performance Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast predicts a 15% decline in net profit for 2024 under neutral assumptions, indicating a need for recovery in the sector [2][3] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on undervalued stocks in the sector, particularly those involved in mergers and acquisitions, such as China Galaxy, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities [2][3]