超越房地产的增长：周期性上升与结构性挑战 专题：老龄化的中国——对经济增长和不平等的影响

Economic Growth and Trade - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 2024 reached 5.3%, driven by improved external demand and trade activities[32] - Merchandise exports increased by 1.5% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024, following a contraction of 4.7% in 2023[19] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investments grew by 9.9% and 8.8% respectively, despite a 7.9% decline in real estate investment[18] Real Estate Sector - New home sales have dropped by 47.2% compared to the peak in July 2021, with new home prices down 8.0% and second-hand home prices down 14.0% as of April 2024[49] - The government has introduced measures to support the struggling real estate sector, including lowering down payment ratios and providing liquidity to property companies[43] - Real estate investment continues to contract, with new construction area down 24.6% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024[49] Inflation and Consumer Prices - Consumer price inflation was nearly flat at 0.1% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024, with a full-year inflation rate of only 0.2% in 2023[52] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.6% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024, following a 3.0% decline in 2023[43] - The decline in consumer demand for durable goods has contributed to low inflation rates, with retail sales growth at 3.5%, below the pre-pandemic average of 7.9%[38] Financial Sector and Credit Growth - Broad fiscal revenue decreased by 3.4% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024, primarily due to a drop in domestic VAT revenue[61] - Credit growth continues to slow, with the banking sector's profitability declining despite increased capital adequacy[64][68] - The fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP was 1.4% at the end of April 2024, indicating potential risks in budget execution[61] Environmental Concerns - Carbon emissions grew by 2.2% year-on-year in Q1 2024, although this rate is lower than GDP growth, indicating a decoupling of economic growth from emissions[59] - Despite rapid expansion in renewable energy, fossil fuel generation continues to rise to meet increasing electricity demand, with total power generation up 8.8% year-on-year[72]