HBYH(000422)2024-06-26 13:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, citing its leading position in the phosphorus and nitrogen fertilizer industry and significant resource advantages [1][13] Core Views - The company is a leader in the phosphorus and nitrogen fertilizer industry with significant resource advantages [1][13] - The "Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Plan" is expected to improve the industry landscape for products such as PVC, synthetic ammonia, diammonium phosphate, and calcium carbide [1][13] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 980/1070/1270 million yuan, representing an increase of 21%/12%/5% compared to previous forecasts [1][13] - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.93/1.05/1.24 yuan, with current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 13/12/10X [1][13] Business Operations - The company is gradually divesting low-relevance assets to focus on its core business [5] - In 2024, the company plans to transfer 100% equity of its subsidiary Hubei Yihua Degradable New Materials Co Ltd, with a minimum transfer price of 151.1875 million yuan [8][20] - The company has significant coal and phosphorus resources, with its subsidiary Xinjiang Yihua having an annual coal production capacity of 30 million tons and proven coal reserves of 2.82 billion tons [11] - The company has a total phosphorus ore production capacity of 3.3 million tons/year, with planned additional capacity of 1.4 million tons/year [11] Financial Performance - The company's fertilizer business revenue for 2024E is projected to be 8098.79 million yuan, with a gross profit of 2109.08 million yuan and a gross margin of 26.04% [21] - The chlor-alkali business revenue for 2024E is forecasted to be 5470.26 million yuan, with a gross profit of 481.11 million yuan and a gross margin of 8.80% [21] - The chemical business revenue for 2024E is expected to be 3176.33 million yuan, with a gross profit of 197.21 million yuan and a gross margin of 6.21% [21] Industry and Market Position - The company is a leading enterprise in China's fertilizer and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) industry, with main products including urea, diammonium phosphate, PVC, and caustic soda [34] - The company has a diammonium phosphate production capacity of 1.26 million tons (equity capacity of 960,000 tons) and a urea production capacity of 2.16 million tons (equity capacity of 1.26 million tons) [34] - The company's diammonium phosphate and urea prices have been rising since Q2 2024, leading to improved profitability [34]