锂电池行业下半年度投资策略：业绩承压，分化持续

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the lithium battery industry [4][5] Core Viewpoints - The lithium battery sector is experiencing significant pressure on performance, with revenue and net profit growth rates declining sharply in 2024 compared to previous years [3][9] - Global sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to continue growing, with a projected 16.4% increase in sales in China for 2024 [3][19] - The industry is transitioning to a strong product-driven model, with leading companies and new entrants in the market showing sustained sales growth despite overall sector challenges [3][20] Summary by Sections 1. Performance and Market Review - In 2023, the lithium battery sector achieved revenue of 2.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.85%, but net profit fell by 32.61% to 1.384 trillion yuan [9][12] - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue decline of 12.86% and a net profit drop of 44.79%, marking the first negative growth in recent years [3][9] - The sector's performance is significantly lagging behind the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 26.43% in 2024 compared to a 2.67% increase in the index [3][14] 2. New Energy Vehicle Sales - Global NEV sales reached 3.2127 million units in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.91% [3][15] - In China, NEV sales for the first five months of 2024 totaled 3.894 million units, up 32.52% year-on-year, with a market share of 33.88% [3][19] - The concentration of sales among the top ten NEV manufacturers in China increased to 84.9% in 2024, indicating a trend towards market consolidation [19][20] 3. 2024 Sector Performance Outlook - The lithium battery sector is expected to face continued performance pressure, with anticipated revenue growth remaining flat or negative for the year [3][9] - The demand for lithium batteries is projected to grow, particularly in the power and energy storage segments, but the growth rate is expected to slow down [3][12] - The overall pricing environment for lithium batteries is expected to remain under pressure due to supply-demand imbalances and increased competition [3][12] 4. Investment Rating and Key Themes - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1. Downstream lithium battery companies benefiting from overall price pressures in raw materials [4] 2. Companies with increasing market share in niche segments despite overall market challenges [4] 3. Investment opportunities related to new energy vehicle manufacturers exceeding sales expectations [4][5]