Jilin OLED(688378) 上海证券·2024-06-27 02:00Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [12][42]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the rising sales of OLEDs, the commencement of high-generation line construction, accelerated domestic material substitution, and increased demand for maintenance and upgrades of 6th generation AMOLED production lines. Revenue from materials and equipment is anticipated to continue increasing [12][50]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 730.20 million, 1,050.41 million, and 1,516.08 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 41.16%, 43.85%, and 44.33% [8][10]. - The overall gross margin is expected to be 57.99%, 60.17%, and 61.23% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [10][12]. Business Segments Analysis 1. Equipment Business - Revenue growth rates for the equipment segment are forecasted at 5.96%, 20.82%, and 106.13% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with gross margins of 66.00%, 65.60%, and 65.00% [5][11]. 2. Materials Business - The materials segment, which includes organic light-emitting materials and packaging materials, is expected to see revenue growth rates of 63.29%, 53.25%, and 24.54% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with gross margins of 54.73%, 58.43%, and 59.24% [6][11]. 3. Other Businesses - Other business revenues are projected to grow by 4.50%, 16.67%, and 14.29% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, maintaining a stable gross margin of 60.00% across these years [7][11]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has successfully broken the foreign monopoly in the production of 6th generation AMOLED linear evaporation sources and is actively developing high-generation evaporation source technologies [50][27]. - As of March 2023, the company held approximately 66% market share in domestic 6th generation AMOLED production lines [21]. Financial Metrics - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 207 million, 285 million, and 430 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 17, and 11, respectively [12][13]. Industry Outlook - The OLED market is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by increasing penetration rates in smartphones and the demand for flexible displays, with the penetration rate expected to rise from 48% in 2023 to 55% in 2024 [61][62].