日元：日债正反馈机制开启：为何加息反而扣动了日元贬值的扳机？

Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) initiated monetary policy normalization in March 2024, raising the policy rate from -0.1% to a range of 0% to 0.1%[1] - The BOJ ended its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and ceased purchasing ETFs and J-REITs, marking a significant shift after eight years of negative interest rates[1] - Despite these hawkish measures, the Japanese yen depreciated from 150 to over 157 against the US dollar, indicating market skepticism about the effectiveness of the policy changes[1] Group 2: Inflation Dynamics - Japan's inflation has normalized, with a significant increase in the proportion of companies raising prices, reaching the highest level since 1983[1] - Both household and corporate inflation expectations are at record highs, suggesting a shift in pricing strategies post-pandemic[1] - The cost transmission coefficient has increased, allowing upstream costs to be passed down to consumers more effectively than in the past[1] Group 3: Debt Dynamics and Risks - The normalization of monetary policy reintroduces debt divergence risks into the pricing framework of the yen, as higher interest rates could lead to increased debt sustainability concerns[1] - A dual-factor pricing model for USD/JPY indicates a strong negative relationship with the debt divergence risk index, with a model fit of 75%[1] - Historical analysis shows that during normal inflation periods, higher debt divergence risks negatively impact the yen, contrasting with previous deflationary periods where the relationship was positive[1]