策略专题：日元-日债正反馈机制开启：为何加息反而扣动了日元贬值的扳机？

Group 1 - The report discusses Japan's transition from a deflationary to an inflationary environment, highlighting the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) recent monetary policy normalization, which includes raising interest rates and ending negative interest rate policies [67][99][106] - It notes that the proportion of companies in Japan choosing to raise prices has reached a record high, indicating a shift in pricing strategies among businesses [2][105] - The report emphasizes that inflation expectations among households and businesses are at their highest levels historically, suggesting a significant change in the economic landscape [2][105] Group 2 - The normalization of monetary policy is linked to the re-emergence of debt divergence risks within the yen pricing framework, which could impact the exchange rate dynamics [57][99][106] - The report introduces a dual-factor pricing model for USDJPY, indicating that the debt divergence risk index and the yield spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds are significant explanatory variables for the exchange rate [19][20][99] - It highlights that the relationship between debt divergence risk and the yen has shifted, with higher debt divergence risk now negatively impacting the yen in a normal inflation environment, contrasting with previous periods of prolonged deflation [20][57][99] Group 3 - The report outlines the feedback mechanisms between yen depreciation and rising Japanese government bond yields, suggesting that as bond yields increase, the risk of debt divergence also rises, leading to further yen depreciation and higher imported inflation [35][57][99] - It discusses the implications of Japan's monetary policy adjustments on global financial markets, particularly in the context of emerging markets facing potential capital outflows due to shifts in the global financing currency dynamics [35][99][106] - The report concludes that Japan's monetary policy adjustments are a critical starting point for broader changes in the global credit currency system, potentially deepening existing fractures [67][99][106]