智飞生物：九价HPV稳步增长，期待带状疱疹疫苗放量

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [7]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing steady growth in the sales of the 9-valent HPV vaccine, with a year-over-year increase of 14% in batch approvals from January to May [5]. - The company has entered into an agreement with GSK for the distribution of the shingles vaccine, which has shown a remarkable growth of 117% in batch approvals during the same period [5]. - The sales team is described as industry-leading, with a workforce of 3,990 professionals covering all provinces and over 30,000 grassroots health service points, which is expected to drive the sales of both HPV and shingles vaccines [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 85.4 billion, RMB 97.5 billion, and RMB 100.7 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 5.8%, 14.2%, and 3.3% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 3.6, RMB 4.1, and RMB 4.2 for the same years, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.9X, 6.9X, and 6.7X [5]. - The company anticipates significant revenue contributions from the shingles vaccine, estimated at RMB 52.7 billion, RMB 105.4 billion, and RMB 158.1 billion from 2024 to 2026 [5]. Product Composition - The product mix consists of 91.4% agency products (second-class vaccines) and 8.6% self-developed products [2]. Shareholder Information - Major shareholder, Jiang Rensheng, holds 48.32% of the company [1]. - Institutional investors hold 10.8% of the circulating A-shares, with general corporations holding 3.2% [3]. Market Performance - As of June 28, 2024, the company's A-share price is RMB 28.03, with a target price set at RMB 34, indicating a potential upside [1]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 15.0% over the past month and 39.9% over the past three months [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s projected operating revenue for 2024 is RMB 60.83 billion, with operating costs estimated at RMB 44.35 billion [8]. - The total profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 10.04 billion, with a net profit of RMB 8.54 billion [8]. Dividend Information - The company is expected to provide dividends of RMB 1.18, RMB 1.34, and RMB 1.39 for the years 2024 to 2026, with a dividend yield of 4.18% [6].