太阳纸业：浆强纸弱格局下，公司林浆纸一体化韧性凸显

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Trading Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 5% to 15% [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the integrated forestry, pulp, and paper industry in China, with a diverse product range including cultural paper, boxboard paper, and household paper. Despite rising pulp prices in H1 2024, paper prices have declined, which may pressure profitability. The company's long-term investments in upstream forestry and pulp have enhanced its operational resilience [4][5]. - The report highlights that the company's self-sufficiency in pulp has reached 60%, significantly mitigating the impact of pulp price fluctuations. The company has established a total pulp and paper production capacity exceeding 12 million tons across its bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the light industry manufacturing sector, with a current A-share price of 13.92 RMB as of June 28, 2024, and a target price of 15.8 RMB [1]. - Major shareholders include Shandong Sun Paper Holdings Group Co., Ltd., holding 44.73% of shares [1]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 34.1 billion RMB, 38.2 billion RMB, and 41.3 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 12%, and 8% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.22 RMB, 1.37 RMB, and 1.48 RMB for the same period [5][6]. - The report notes a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to rising pulp prices, with previous estimates being slightly higher [5]. Market Conditions - The report indicates that the pulp price has increased significantly, with hardwood pulp prices rising by 18.5% and softwood pulp prices by 7.7% since the beginning of 2024. However, paper prices have decreased, with double glue paper and coated paper prices falling by 6.5% and 3.1% respectively [4][5]. - The report anticipates limited recovery in pulp prices in H2 2024 due to various market factors, including currency fluctuations and weak domestic bargaining power [4].