2024年7月份投资策略报告：震荡反复中筑底企稳

Group 1: Electronics Industry - The report highlights optimism for the electronics sector in the second half of the year, driven by AI innovations and the acceleration of large model applications, leading to increased capital expenditure from major cloud providers and sustained demand for AI computing power [1] - The smartphone market is expected to experience a new replacement wave due to the release of AI-enabled devices and foldable phones, benefiting the entire supply chain, particularly in components with enhanced specifications such as structural parts, cooling systems, displays, and hinges [1] - The PC market is anticipated to recover as inventory depletion nears completion, with multiple AI PCs set to launch, suggesting a focus on structural components, batteries, and cooling systems [1] - The copper-clad laminate industry is also viewed positively, with expectations of a new price increase cycle driven by rising raw material costs and improved downstream demand [1] Group 2: Communication Industry - The demand for AIGC processing capabilities is shifting towards mobile communications, with the AI smartphone market share and penetration rates continuing to grow, potentially redefining consumer interaction and operational efficiency [2] - The completion of the R18 standard marks a significant milestone in the standardization of 5G-A technology, which is expected to facilitate the development of applications and promote the construction of a 5G-A ecosystem [2] - The report suggests that the collaborative deployment of edge computing and the acceleration of 5G-A applications will create new opportunities for related companies in the communication sector [2] Group 3: Wind Power Industry - In the first four months of 2024, China's newly installed wind power capacity reached 16.84 GW, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%, although April saw a significant decline in new installations [3] - The report notes that the wind power industry is still in a cost-reduction and efficiency-enhancement phase, with a general underperformance in the first quarter for offshore wind component manufacturers [3] - It is expected that the acceleration of offshore wind project construction in the second half of the year will boost the shipment volume of offshore components [3] Group 4: Market Environment Analysis - The report indicates a mixed global economic recovery, with China's economy showing signs of concern, particularly in the context of weak domestic demand and ongoing structural challenges [6][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal policies and infrastructure investments in supporting domestic demand, with expectations for improved economic conditions as special bonds are issued and long-term projects are implemented [6][15] - The analysis suggests that the A-share market may gradually stabilize and recover, supported by policy expectations and the gradual release of market pressure [6][15] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The report recommends an overweight allocation in sectors such as finance, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), electric power equipment, and public utilities for July [20][42] - The banking sector is highlighted for its resilience despite pressure on net interest margins and overall performance, with expectations for high dividend value in a low-interest-rate environment [44] - The insurance sector is facing challenges due to declining long-term interest rates, but the adjustment of preset rates may stimulate demand for savings insurance products [45] - The report also points to significant opportunities in the intelligent connected vehicle market, particularly in the context of policies promoting vehicle-road collaboration [46]