CMC(SH:600327) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-06-28 11:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating, expecting a relative increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [54]. Core Insights - The medical health sector is experiencing rapid revenue growth, with a 17% year-on-year increase in 2023, reaching 2.624 billion yuan, accounting for 74% of the total revenue of the company [2]. - The pediatric healthcare segment is expected to benefit from a broad age coverage, with a large population base, mitigating the impact of declining birth rates [7]. - The average single visit revenue for children's hospitals has been increasing at an annual growth rate of approximately 5.2%, reaching 604 yuan by 2019 [11]. - The pediatric physician supply is insufficient, with the proportion of pediatricians increasing from 3.9% in 2011 to 4.8% in 2021, indicating high demand for pediatric services [12][13]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company anticipates revenues of 4.081 billion yuan, 4.923 billion yuan, and 5.909 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 20.6%, and 20.0% [48]. - The gross profit margin for the medical health sector is projected to improve, with estimates of 7.40%, 7.80%, and 9.03% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [46]. - The pediatric service segment is expected to generate revenues of 2.868 billion yuan, 3.614 billion yuan, and 4.517 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.0%, 26.0%, and 25.0% [44]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that the number of private children's hospitals has surpassed that of public ones, indicating a shift in the market dynamics [14]. - The pediatric healthcare sector is characterized by a high demand for services, with private institutions likely to benefit from the growing focus on child health as a core family concern [36]. - The company is positioned to leverage its strong physician resources and service quality to capture market share in the pediatric healthcare segment [17].