医药行业周报：关注原料药产业的景气度变化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of June 30, 2024 [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply and demand changes in the raw material pharmaceutical industry, noting a recovery in the market for certain products [3]. - It highlights the ongoing shortage in the GLP-1 supply chain overseas, presenting opportunities for domestic GLP-1 new drugs to enter international markets [4]. - The report discusses the tightening regulation of retail channels while maintaining pricing autonomy for certain products [6]. - It points out that resource-based products are better positioned to handle uncertainties, with a focus on the progress of the new essential drug directory [8]. - The report notes the initiation of the 2024 medical insurance directory adjustments, indicating increased negotiation difficulties in the new environment [9]. - It identifies the continuous potential for reform in state-owned pharmaceutical enterprises, with an emphasis on efficiency improvements [10]. - The report mentions the domestic market for respiratory testing, which is expected to see stable growth due to increasing penetration rates [11]. - It outlines the investment selection strategy for the pharmaceutical sector, focusing on various sub-sectors and companies that are expected to perform well [12][13]. Summary by Sections Raw Material Pharmaceutical Industry - The report indicates a significant decline in China's Western medicine raw material exports in 2023, with a total of $40.909 billion, down 20.66% year-on-year, primarily due to price drops [3]. - It notes a positive growth trend in exports for Western medicine in March-April 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 2.56% in April [3]. GLP-1 Market - The report highlights the ongoing shortage of semaglutide in the U.S. and the expected continuation of this issue until the end of 2024, creating opportunities for Chinese raw material exports [4]. - It mentions the promising results of domestic GLP-1 new drug clinical trials, which could lead to significant market opportunities [4]. Retail Channel Regulation - The report discusses the introduction of a price comparison system by the National Medical Insurance Administration, which aims to stabilize prices across various retail channels [6]. Resource-Based Products - The report emphasizes that resource-based products are more resilient to uncertainties, particularly in light of the new essential drug directory adjustments [8]. Medical Insurance Directory Adjustments - The report outlines the new challenges in negotiating for inclusion in the medical insurance directory, with an expected average price reduction exceeding that of 2023 [9]. State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - The report notes that state-owned pharmaceutical enterprises have shown growth rates significantly above the industry average, with a focus on efficiency improvements [10]. Respiratory Testing Market - The report indicates that domestic companies are expected to see rapid growth in the respiratory testing market, supported by increasing market penetration [11]. Investment Selection Strategy - The report provides a detailed investment selection strategy, recommending specific companies and sectors within the pharmaceutical industry that are expected to perform well [12][13].