双融日报 2025 年 09 月 05 日 今日热点主题：机器人、生物医药、国产芯片 1、机器人主题：9 月 2 日，特斯拉正式发布其"宏图计划" 第四篇章(简称"宏图 4")的完整文件。相比前三篇章更多 着墨于新能源汽车以及可持续能源生态系统，此次文件关于 AI 和机器人内容占比明显提高。值得一提的是，就在"宏图 4"发布之际，马斯克重申了机器人业务在特斯拉的战略地 位。他表示，FSD 和 Optimus 的规模化将是最为重要的事 项，因为未来特斯拉约 80%的价值将来自 Optimus 机器人。 相关标的：卧龙电驱（600580）、长盛轴承（300718） 市场情绪：34 分（较冷） 最近一年大盘走势 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 2、生物医药主题：国务院国资委 9 月 2 日消息，近日，国务 院国资委与中科院联办央企生物研修班，提出以创新、长周 期、差异化思路发展生物医药，深化产学研协同，打造国家 队，助推健康中国。相关标的：国药现代（600420）、天坛 生物（600161） 1、《双融日报》2025-09-04 2、《双融日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to weak liquor consumption, but new products have gained market recognition [1][5] - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategies, focusing on cost control and enhancing its product system, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's total revenue for H1 2025 was 561 million yuan, a decrease of 44% year-on-year, with a net profit of 9 million yuan, down 93% [4][5] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 217 million yuan, a decline of 57%, with a net loss of 23 million yuan, a decrease of 148% [4][5] Product and Sales Analysis - The company's product revenue for H1 2025 saw declines across various series, with the "Inner Reference" series down 36%, "Jiu Gui" down 51%, and "Xiang Quan" down 36% [6] - The company has streamlined its product offerings, reducing SKUs by over 50% in the "Jiu Gui" series, and implemented measures to address distributor inventory issues [6] Distribution and New Products - The company is accelerating the clearing of its distribution system, with a net reduction of 531 distributors, bringing the total to 805 [7] - A new co-branded product, "Jiu Gui Jiu · Free Love," launched in collaboration with a supermarket chain, has quickly sold out, indicating strong market demand [7] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts EPS of 0.17 yuan for 2025, 0.44 yuan for 2026, and 0.79 yuan for 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 391, 147, and 82 times [8][11] - The projected revenue growth rates are -49.7% for 2024, -16.8% for 2025, 9.8% for 2026, and 18.0% for 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [10] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum's H1 2025 revenue increased by 11.19% year-on-year to 15.328 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 0.51% to 2.084 billion yuan. The company reported a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, up 47.09% to 3.280 billion yuan [1][2] Production and Sales Summary - The production volume of electrolytic aluminum in H1 2025 remained stable at 585,400 tons, while alumina production increased by 9.76% to 1.1999 million tons. The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum rose by approximately 2.8% to 20,250 yuan per ton, and the average selling price of self-produced alumina increased by about 6% to 3,700 yuan per ton [2][3] - The external sales volume of electrolytic aluminum increased by approximately 2% year-on-year, and the external sales volume of alumina rose by about 7% [2] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, Tianshan Aluminum's total revenue was 15.328 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 3.100 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.01%. The revenue contribution from various segments was 65.26% from raw aluminum, 24.20% from alumina, 2.10% from high-purity aluminum, 6.89% from aluminum foil, and 1.55% from other segments [3] - The company forecasts revenues of 33.874 billion yuan, 35.207 billion yuan, and 37.396 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 4.594 billion yuan, 4.858 billion yuan, and 5.233 billion yuan for the same years [10][12]

2025 年 09 月 04 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 47 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 市场情绪：47 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：机器人、生物医药、国产芯片 1、机器人主题：9 月 2 日，特斯拉正式发布其"宏图计划" 第四篇章(简称"宏图 4")的完整文件。相比前三篇章更多 着墨于新能源汽车以及可持续能源生态系统，此次文件关于 AI 和机器人内容占比明显提高。值得一提的是，就在"宏图 4"发布之际，马斯克重申了机器人业务在特斯拉的战略地 位。他表示，FSD 和 Optimus 的规模化将是最为重要的事 项，因为未来特斯拉约 80%的价值将来自 Optimus 机器人。 相关标的：卧龙电驱（600580）、长盛轴承（300718） c 2、生物医药主题：国务院国资委 ...

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 47, indicating a "neutral" sentiment [4][8] - Historical trends show that when the sentiment score is below or close to 50, the market tends to receive support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [8] Hot Themes Tracking - **Robotics Theme**: NVIDIA is set to launch a new "brain" for robots, with related stocks including Wolong Electric Drive (600580) and Changsheng Bearing (300718) [4] - **GPU Theme**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the orderly development of computing power facilities, aiming to enhance the quality of computing resources. Key stocks include Loongson Technology (688047) and Jingjia Micro (300474) [4] - **Rare Earth Theme**: Recent discussions in Shenzhen aim to integrate rare earth materials with low-altitude economy and robotics. Related stocks include Northern Rare Earth (600111) and Guangsheng Nonferrous (600259) [4] Capital Flow Analysis - The top net inflow stocks include: - Julu Intelligent (119,620.42 million) - Gongxiao Daji (71,192.06 million) - Kunlun Wanwei (60,072.23 million) [9] - The top net outflow stocks include: - Xinyi Sheng (316,840.45 million) - Dongfang Caifu (293,292.44 million) - Zhongxing Communication (164,072.01 million) [11] Industry Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring market sentiment and capital flows to identify potential investment opportunities and risks in various sectors [20][21]

金诚信发布 2025 年中报：公司 2025 年 H1 实现营业收入 63.16 亿元，同比增加 47.82%；归母净利润 11.11 亿元， 同比增加 81.29%；扣除非经常性损益的归母净利润 10.88 亿元，同比增加 78.51%；经营活动产生的现金流量净额 17.26 亿元，同比增加 255.08%。 投资要点 ▌矿山服务：Q1 营收下滑调整，Q2 整体好转 矿山服务 Q2 整体好转。矿山服务板 2025 年上半年营收为 33.2 亿元，同比+0.57%；毛利率为 23.10%，同比-4.98pct。 分季度来看，Q1 营收为 15.0 亿元，同比-3.29%，环比- 9.99%；Q2 营收为 18.2 亿元，同比+3.98%，环比 21.55%。 其中 Q1 矿服营收下滑，主要因为公司 2024 年 7 月正式完成 对 Lubambe 铜矿的收购，原鲁班比矿服项目为 Lubambe 铜矿 提供采矿运营管理服务，现已转为内部管理单位，相应减少 了矿山服务业务收入。 2025 年 09 月 03 日 2025H1 毛利率下降主要是公司 2024 年 12 月完成收购 TerraMining 股权，将其 ...

| 基本数据 | 2025-09-01 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 34.51 | | 总市值（亿元） | 319 | | 总股本（百万股） | 924 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 812 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 14.58-34.51 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 290.53 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 (%) 亚钾国际 沪深300 相关研究 —亚钾国际（000893.SZ）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 09 月 02 日 钾肥业务量价齐升兑现利润 买入(首次) 事件 | 分析师：张伟保 | S1050523110001 | | --- | --- | | zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：高铭谦 | S1050124080006 | | gaomq@cfsc.com.cn | | 2025 年上半年，公司钾肥业务实现量价齐升，驱动营收显著 增长，公司钾肥产品营收达 24.91 亿元，同比增长 50.17%。 市场上，受到俄、白俄矿山维护减产影响，全球氯化钾供 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to low product prices, with total revenue for the first half of 2025 at 3.444 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.62%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 22 million yuan, down 89.24% year-on-year [1][2]. - The chemical and new materials business saw a revenue increase of 2.37% to 2.234 billion yuan, while the energy business revenue decreased by 21.75% to 1.210 billion yuan. The overall profitability has declined significantly due to narrowing price spreads between products and raw materials [2]. - The company has increased its R&D investment, reaching 175 million yuan, a 37.36% increase year-on-year, which has impacted cash flow negatively [3]. - The expansion of the butanol production capacity is expected to strengthen the company's competitive edge, with the new capacity projected to reach 150,000 tons per year [4][8]. - The company is expected to fill the market gap left by Shell's exit and improve performance through increased production of MTBE and butanediol, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 129 million, 410 million, and 518 million yuan respectively [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported total operating income of 3.444 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.62% year-on-year, and a net profit of 22 million yuan, down 89.24% year-on-year [1]. - The chemical and new materials segment's revenue increased by 2.37% to 2.234 billion yuan, while the energy segment's revenue decreased by 21.75% to 1.210 billion yuan [2]. R&D and Cash Flow - R&D expenses accounted for 2.78% of total revenue, with a significant increase in investment to 175 million yuan, impacting cash flow negatively [3]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company is expanding its butanol production capacity, which is expected to enhance its market position and operational efficiency [4][8]. - The new MTBE production capacity is anticipated to help recover from the decline in profitability and fill the market void left by competitors [9]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 129 million, 410 million, and 518 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35.1, 11.1, and 8.8 [9].

2025 年 09 月 02 日 | 基本数据 | 2025-09-01 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 25.94 | | 总市值（亿元） | 12329 | | 总股本（百万股） | 47530 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2990 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 23.23-31.47 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 1127.69 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 中国海油 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《中国海油（600938）：油气产 量和储量双增，成本持续下降》 2025-04-09 2、《中国海油（600938）：Q3 油气 产量提升，优质多元资产支撑稳健 经营》2024-11-13 油价下行拖累业绩，增储上产筑牢资源护城河 —中国海油（600938.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：张伟保 | S1050523110001 | | --- | --- | | zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：高铭谦 | S1050124080006 | ...

2025 年 09 月 02 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：85 分（过热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（过热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 85 分，市场情绪处于"过热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：机器人、GPU、稀土 1、机器人主题：英伟达即将推出机器人新"大脑"。8 月 24 日，英伟达机器人账号在社交平台发布预热推文，"你安排 好时间了吗？2025 年 8 月 25 日。"配图中是一个黑色礼 盒，上面是一张写着"好好享受！"、带着黄仁勋签名落款 的 贺 卡 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卧 龙 电 驱 （ 600580 ） 、 长 盛 轴 承 （300718） 2、GPU 主题：工信部副部长熊继军在 2025 中国算力大会上强 调，工信部将有序引导算力设施建设，切实提升算力资源供 给质量。推动完善算力布局政策体系，优化布局算力基础设 ...