农林牧渔行业双周报：猪价略有回落

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 6.2% from June 17 to June 28, 2024, which is approximately 3.95 percentage points lower than the index [5]. - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded negative returns during the same period, with declines of 5.42% in planting, 6.19% in breeding, 6.2% in feed, 6.36% in agricultural product processing, 6.52% in animal health, and 7.53% in fishery [6]. - Approximately 96% of stocks in the industry experienced negative returns, with only 4% showing positive returns, and the highest gain was 11.09% for Dayu Biological [8][9]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index was approximately 2.32 times as of June 28, 2024, indicating a relative low valuation compared to historical levels [11]. Industry Important Data - Pig Farming: The average price of external three-line pigs decreased from 18.77 CNY/kg to 17.99 CNY/kg between June 17 and June 30, 2024 [14]. - Production Capacity: As of the end of May 2024, the number of breeding sows was 39.96 million, a 0.3% increase month-on-month but a 6.2% decrease year-on-year [17]. - Costs: The spot price of corn was 2480.39 CNY/ton, showing an increase, while the spot price of soybean meal was 3320 CNY/ton, showing a decrease as of June 28, 2024 [17]. - Profitability: The profit for self-breeding and self-raising pig farming was 285.2 CNY per head, which decreased compared to the previous week [17]. Industry News - The Hainan provincial government issued guidelines to support high-quality development in the seed industry, with eligible enterprises receiving subsidies up to 10 million CNY [28]. - Green康生化 signed a supply agreement with Zoetis Belgium S.A. for the supply of methylene salicylate bacteria peptide for the years 2024 to 2026 [29]. - 正虹科技 announced the transfer of subsidiary equity for 9.44 million CNY [30]. - 生物股份 received the National Technology Invention Award for its vaccine development project [31]. Industry Outlook - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating, anticipating a continued decline in pig supply in the second half of the year, with improved profitability expected due to lower cost pressures compared to last year [33]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in leading companies with strong cash reserves and cost control capabilities, such as牧原股份 (002714), 温氏股份 (300498), and 新希望 (000876) [34].