恒林股份：厚积薄发，跨境电商驱动新成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 59.00 CNY per share, based on a valuation of 15X for 2024 [9]. Core Views - The company is expected to continue its rapid growth in cross-border e-commerce, driven by its strong competitive advantages and the increasing penetration of e-commerce in overseas markets [29][54]. - Traditional OEM furniture manufacturing is anticipated to recover due to the replenishment cycle in the U.S. market and the expected easing of monetary policy [29][55]. - The management empowerment of the LO brand is expected to yield positive results, contributing to steady revenue growth [6][29]. - The report highlights the gradual release of goodwill impairment risks associated with the acquisition of the kitchen brand, Chuzhibo [6][57]. Summary by Sections Cross-Border E-commerce - The company has established a strong competitive position in cross-border e-commerce, with a projected revenue of approximately 7.1 billion CNY in Q1 2024, and an expected annual revenue of 16.2 billion CNY for 2023 [6]. - Forecasted revenues for 2024-2026 are 40.53 billion CNY, 56.74 billion CNY, and 73.76 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of +150.0%, +40.0%, and +30.0% respectively [6]. Traditional OEM Furniture Manufacturing - The company anticipates a recovery in traditional OEM furniture manufacturing, with projected revenues of 22.65 billion CNY, 23.79 billion CNY, and 24.97 billion CNY for 2024-2026, reflecting year-on-year growth of +10.0%, +5.0%, and +5.0% respectively [6]. LO Brand - The LO brand is expected to see revenue growth of 11.85 billion CNY, 13.03 billion CNY, and 14.34 billion CNY from 2024 to 2026, with consistent year-on-year growth of +10.0% [6]. Chuzhibo Brand - Revenue projections for Chuzhibo are 4.94 billion CNY, 4.20 billion CNY, and 3.78 billion CNY for 2024-2026, with expected declines of -25.0%, -15.0%, and -10.0% respectively [6]. Board Furniture OEM - The report forecasts revenues for board furniture OEM to be 5.09 billion CNY, 5.33 billion CNY, and 5.56 billion CNY for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of +10.15%, +4.70%, and +4.30% respectively [6]. Yongyu Home - Yongyu Home is projected to achieve revenues of 17.14 billion CNY, 19.71 billion CNY, and 22.66 billion CNY from 2024 to 2026, with consistent year-on-year growth of +15.0% [6].