复星国际：信用评级稳定，融资渠道改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Fosun International with a target price of HKD 7.5, indicating a potential upside of 78% from the current price of HKD 4.22 [3][2]. Core Insights - The credit rating agency S&P has affirmed Fosun International's BB- rating with a stable outlook, reflecting expectations that the company will manage its upcoming debt maturities and gradually reduce its holding company debt over the next 12-18 months [1][2]. - The company has improved its financing channels significantly, with bank loans now accounting for 70% of its total debt of RMB 89 billion as of the end of 2023, up from 46% in 2022 [1]. - Asset disposals have stabilized the financial condition, with over RMB 25 billion in assets sold since 2022, focusing on non-core businesses [1]. - Fosun International plans to concentrate on three core industries: health, consumer, and finance, with ongoing efforts to enhance its global footprint in the health sector and optimize capital allocation [1][2]. Financial Projections - Expected net profits for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 38.8 billion, RMB 46.4 billion, and RMB 51.9 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.51, HKD 0.62, and HKD 0.69 [1][2]. - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory from RMB 198.2 billion in 2023 to RMB 250.6 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.74% [7][8]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs both segment valuation and NAV methods to estimate the company's value, arriving at a reasonable market capitalization of approximately HKD 609 billion, translating to a target price of HKD 7.4 [9][10]. - The NAV method suggests a total NAV of HKD 622 billion, leading to a target price of HKD 7.6, with an overall target price consensus of HKD 7.5 [9][12].