Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company benefits from significant advantages in integrated industrial chain, leading to continuous performance release [5][6] - The company has established a large-scale industrial cluster in Shandong, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs through proximity to suppliers and stable relationships with downstream partners [5][6] - The company is transitioning to a green industrial chain by relocating 203,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity to Yunnan, which has abundant hydropower resources and lower electricity costs [5][6] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 133,624 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1% [8] - Net profit for 2023 is expected to be 11,461 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32% [8] - The company’s EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 1.94, 2.17, and 2.41 yuan per share respectively [6][8] Production and Pricing Assumptions - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to reach 6.46 million tons by the end of 2023, with aluminum alloy product output projected at 6.29 million tons, 6.37 million tons, and 6.41 million tons for 2024 to 2026 [9] - Aluminum prices are forecasted to be 20,200 yuan/ton, 20,800 yuan/ton, and 21,200 yuan/ton for 2024 to 2026 [9] Valuation and Comparable Company Analysis - The company is assigned a valuation range of 13.58 to 15.52 yuan per share for 2024, corresponding to a PE ratio of 7-8 times [6] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is around 14.0 for 2023, with individual companies showing varying EPS and PE ratios [11]
中国宏桥：产业链一体化优势显著，业绩持续释放