Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Fosun Tourism Group (1992.HK) [2]. Core Insights - Fosun Tourism Group is positioned in the high-end leisure vacation sector, showing strong growth potential despite global economic uncertainties. The company achieved a 19% increase in tourism operating revenue in 2023, with a steady growth trend continuing into 2024 [5][17]. - The company's strategic focus on high-end vacation offerings, such as Club Med, has led to a significant increase in average daily room rates, which rose by 31% compared to 2019 [17][22]. - The report highlights a shift in revenue and profit structure, with a decreasing reliance on real estate sales, which now account for less than 7% of total revenue, down from 20% in 2019 [28][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Positioning in High-End Leisure Vacation Sector - Global high-end consumption is expected to maintain resilience in the short term and steady growth in the long term, driven by high-income groups [7][10]. - Fosun Tourism Group's performance has been impressive since 2023, with a 19% growth in tourism operating revenue despite external challenges [5][17]. 2. Brand and Product Advantages - The company's product strength has been validated, with profitability exceeding pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, tourism operating revenue reached 181 billion yuan, a 19% increase year-on-year [22][24]. - The company has adopted a light-asset operation strategy, focusing on enhancing operational capabilities in products, brands, and services to achieve sustainable growth [26][27]. 3. Revenue and Profit Structure Changes - The reliance on real estate has decreased significantly, with tourism operations now contributing the majority of revenue. In 2023, adjusted EBITDA was 37.3 billion yuan, with tourism operations accounting for 37.13 billion yuan [28][31]. - The company maintains a stable net debt level of 8.7 billion yuan and has a healthy cash balance of approximately 3 billion yuan [33][34]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2024-2026, estimating total revenues of 185 billion yuan, 207 billion yuan, and 224 billion yuan, respectively, with a focus on tourism operations [35][36]. - The current valuation is considered low, with the report suggesting a potential for significant price recovery as the company continues to expand its high-end vacation offerings [40][41].
复星旅游文化：复星旅文首次覆盖报告：看好高端度假龙头发展潜力，低估值体现价值投资空间