房地产行业24年5月行业月报：基本面信心仍脆弱，“稳需求、去库存”持续推进

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The current policy environment is more relaxed compared to the 2014-2016 cycle, with a significant decrease in the policy intensity index from 2304 in January 2022 to 859 by June 2024, indicating a 63% decline [14][17] - The "517 New Policy" has led to a rapid implementation of measures aimed at boosting demand, particularly in the second-hand housing market, with daily transactions increasing by at least 30% following its introduction [2][25] - The overall market remains sluggish, with May 2024 seeing a 26.4% year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales amounting to 759.8 billion yuan [2][6] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Environment Overview: Stabilizing Demand and Reducing Inventory - The report highlights that local policies have been increasingly supportive, with 77 improvement policies introduced in May 2024 alone, including 56 related to the "four limits" [14][5] - The "517 New Policy" has opened up more room for easing restrictions, with the policy intensity index dropping significantly [20][18] 2. Transaction Market Overview: Declining Volume and Prices - The report notes a continued decline in both transaction volume and prices, with the sales amount for the first five months of 2024 equivalent to levels seen in 2016 [2][6] - The proportion of cities experiencing price declines remains high, with 97% of cities reporting either a drop or stable prices in new housing [2][6] 3. Land Market Overview: Continued Decline in Activity - The land market has also seen a downturn, with May 2024 land transfer revenue dropping by 59.4% year-on-year, indicating a significant contraction in market activity [2][6] 4. Development Investment Market Overview: Weak Investment Confidence - New construction area for commodity housing in May 2024 fell by 22.7% year-on-year, reflecting a broader trend of declining investment confidence [2][6] 5. Financing Market Overview: Positive Growth in Development Loans - The report indicates that the "financing whitelist" has positively impacted development loans, although overall resident credit willingness remains low [2][6]