Macro Environment - The industrial capacity utilization rate in Q1 2024 was recorded at 73.6%, a decline of 2.3 percentage points from the end of 2023[7] - In 2023, 24 industries saw an average capacity utilization increase of 5.53%, while 12 industries experienced a decline averaging 2.52%[7] - The central economic work conference highlighted the need to address capacity issues in certain industries, particularly in the photovoltaic sector[7] Trade and Investment Trends - Since 2018, the average tariff on Chinese imports to the U.S. rose from 3.1% to 19.3%, peaking at 21.0%[39] - In 2022, China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) flow was $163.12 billion, ranking second globally, with a stock of $2.75 trillion[31] - The manufacturing sector's OFDI is concentrated in North America, Southeast Asia, and South America, with significant investments in equipment manufacturing[31] Industry Shifts - The top three sectors for greenfield investment in 2023 were electronic components, automotive OEM, and renewable energy, with investments of $17.615 billion, $6.078 billion, and $4.287 billion respectively[46] - The transition from labor-intensive to technology-intensive industries is evident in the changing landscape of greenfield investments[46] - The global supply chain is undergoing a fifth round of industrial transfer, with manufacturing increasingly moving to Southeast Asia and India due to rising labor costs in China[11] Strategic Considerations - Companies are considering capacity relocation to avoid high tariffs and benefit from local export tax incentives in host countries[39] - The trend of "nearshoring" and "friendshoring" is gaining traction, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the need for resilient supply chains[50] - The historical context of industrial transfer indicates a shift in China's role from a recipient to a provider of industrial capacity, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative[53]
出海系列深度报告（一）：制造业产能出海的战略选择
Bank of China Securities·2024-07-01 02:02