房地产行业2024年中期策略：静待地产新黎明

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting specific companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, Longfor Group, Vanke A, and others as key investment opportunities [4]. Core Insights - The real estate market remains under pressure in the first half of 2024, characterized by sluggish sales, significant inventory, and a subdued land market. Policies aimed at both supply and demand sides are being implemented to stimulate the market [2][8]. - For the second half of 2024, the report predicts a continued decline in real estate sales area by 13.12% to below 1 billion square meters, with investment and new construction also expected to decrease significantly [2][8]. - A new model for the real estate industry is necessary, focusing on lifecycle management, improved financing and sales systems, and a shift towards demand-driven housing supply [2][8]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The real estate market is experiencing ongoing pressure, with sales and inventory challenges persisting. The first half of 2024 saw a continued decline in sales, with a significant backlog of unsold properties [13][14]. - Key policies have been introduced to support both supply and demand, including lowering down payment requirements and easing purchase restrictions [8][9]. Supply and Demand - The report indicates that approximately 495 billion yuan is needed to absorb existing inventory, with central bank measures potentially covering this amount through new loans [2][8]. - Demand-side policies have been implemented to lower barriers for homebuyers, with a focus on first-time and upgrading buyers [11][12]. Sales and Investment - The total sales area for the first five months of 2024 was 36.6 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.3% [14][15]. - Real estate investment is projected to decrease by 9% year-on-year, with new construction and completion rates also expected to decline significantly [21][22]. New Real Estate Model - The report emphasizes the need for a new operational model in the real estate sector, focusing on lifecycle management and improved institutional frameworks for development and financing [2][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with lower financing costs and high market share in core areas, such as China Merchants Shekou and Poly Developments, while also suggesting attention to quality developers and property management firms [2][4].