行业周报 · 纺织服饰 体育服饰龙头稳增长, 1-2 月内需企稳 2025年3月23日 核心观点 纺织服饰行业 推荐 维持 分析师 郝帅 ☎: 010-8092-7622 2: haoshuai@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524040001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-3-23 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 安踏体育、特步国际、361 度披露 2024 全年业绩,国产体育品牌逆势增 ● 长 。 安 踏 体 育 / 特 步 国 际 /361 度 2024 年 分 别 录 得 营 业 收 入 708.26/135.77/100.74 亿元,同比增长 13.6%/6.5%/19.6%, 归属母公司净利 润 155.96/12.38/11.49亿元,同比增长 52.4%/20.2%/19.5%。扣除非经营性 影响,三家公司净利润增速分别为+2%/+4.1%/19.5%。安踏体育 2024 年经营 利润率有所下降,主要系公司营销费用增长较多,原材料成本提升 ...

公司点评报告 ·汽车行业 业绩稳中有升,04 受原材料涨价毛利率略下滑 2024 年年报业绩点评 2025年3月24日 核心观点 法拉电子 (股票代码: 600563.SH) | | | 分析师 ☎：010-80927689 网: shijinman_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030002 研究助理 秦智坤 网: qinzhikun_yj@chinastock.com.cn | 市场数据 | 2025-3-21 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 600563.SH | | A 股收盘价(元) | 124.00 | | 上证指数 | 3,364.83 | | 总股本(万股) | 22,500.00 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 22,500.00 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 279.00 | 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-3-21 料来源:同花顺iFinD,中国银河证券研 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 石金漫 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 0 事件:公司发布 20 ...

推荐 维持评级 分析师 石金漫 公司点评报告 ·汽车行业 自主品牌消费升级带动量价齐升,业绩靓 2024 年年报业绩点评 2025 年 3 月 24 日 核心观点 发布员工持股计划加深与核心员工利益绑定,激发公司成长活力:2024年 ● 11 月 16 日公司发布员工持股计划，对包括公司监事（不含外部监事）、高级 管理 人员及董事会认为需要激励的其他骨干员工共 63人受让 54万股公司 A 股普通股股票,受让价格为 72元/股,对比公司持股计划董事会审议前一个交 易日公司股票交易均价 142.74 元折价约 50%,本次持股计划将根据员工 2024 年-2026 年个人考核结果解锁。持股计划加深了公司核心员工与公司的利益绑 定,有望激发公司成长活力,推动公司业务规模的持续扩大。据公司测算,员 工持股计划预计在 2025-2027 年分别确认 2291.01 万元、882.24 万元、333.11 星宇股份 (股票代码: 601799.SH) ☎：010-80927689 网: shijinman_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030002 研究助理 秦智坤 网: q ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 173.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45.8%. The core OTA platform is expected to generate 142 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.1% [6]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 27.9 billion yuan, an increase of 26.7% compared to the previous year. The adjusted diluted EPS is estimated to be 1.20 yuan [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a breakeven point in its international business by 2025, with significant growth potential in international ticketing and hotel bookings [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 173.41 billion yuan - 2025: 198.61 billion yuan - 2026: 222.40 billion yuan - 2027: 243.36 billion yuan - Revenue growth rates are projected at 46%, 15%, 12%, and 9% respectively [2][6]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is 27.9 billion yuan, with projections of 32 billion yuan in 2025, 39 billion yuan in 2026, and 45 billion yuan in 2027 [2][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Adjusted diluted EPS is expected to grow from 1.20 yuan in 2024 to 1.93 yuan by 2027 [2][6]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - The adjusted PE ratio is projected to decrease from 15.36 in 2024 to 9.50 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [2][6]. User Engagement and Growth - The company reported a monthly average of 43.1 million paying users in 2024, a 4.4% increase year-on-year, with annual paying users reaching 240 million, marking a 1.5% growth [6]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) increased by 44%, with the frequency of user consumption rising from 5.5 times in 2019 to 8.1 times in 2024 [6]. Cost Management and Profitability - The report highlights improved cost management, with a decrease in service development, sales, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue [6]. - The adjusted net profit margin for the core OTA platform is projected to improve, indicating ongoing enhancements in profitability [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, indicating that the stock is currently undervalued and has potential for growth [6]. Core Insights - The company has experienced multiple growth phases since its listing in 2014, but has been in a dormant phase from 2021 to 2024 due to market fluctuations [8][10]. - The company is a leader in the small home appliance supply chain, with significant production capabilities and a strong focus on international expansion and product category diversification [32][41]. - The brand "Mofei" has seen rapid growth, with revenue increasing from 115 million yuan in 2017 to 1.243 billion yuan in 2021, showcasing the effectiveness of its marketing strategies [9]. - The company is expected to recover its revenue and profit levels by 2024, surpassing previous highs due to the end of the inventory clearance cycle in the small appliance market [12][24]. Summary by Sections Market Data - The company's stock code is 002705.SZ, with a closing price of 16.45 yuan and a market capitalization of 132.94 billion yuan [1]. Financial Performance Forecast - Projected revenue for 2023 is 14.647 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.9%. By 2026, revenue is expected to reach 21.765 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.5% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 977 million yuan in 2023 to 1.471 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [5]. Supply Chain and Production - The company is recognized as a small appliance supply chain leader, with a production capacity of 130 million units in 2023, significantly higher than competitors [32]. - The company has established four major production bases in China and is expanding its capacity in Indonesia to mitigate tariff risks [50][51]. Brand Strategy and Market Position - The company has developed a brand matrix strategy, with the Mofei brand emerging as a key player in the small appliance market, leveraging content marketing and product innovation [9][32]. - The company has diversified its product offerings beyond kitchen appliances, expanding into personal care, cleaning, and commercial appliances [58][60]. International Trade and Tariff Risks - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the company's export strategies, with a shift towards Southeast Asia for production to mitigate risks associated with U.S. tariffs [64][68]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with major global brands, enhancing its market presence in developed regions [40][43].

行业点评报告 · 家电行业 空调内外销稳健、美的海尔拥抱新技术新趋势 2 月空调产销数据点评 核心观点 家电行业 (维持) 推荐 分析师 何伟 ☎：021-20257811 ☑：hewei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525010001 ☎：010-80927637 网: yangce_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130520050005 2025 年 3 月 20 日 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-3-18 20% 资料来源：iFind,中国银河证券研究院 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 相比 4024 刺激高峰,2025 家电内销增速放缓,空调表现不错:1)统 ● 计局数据,2025年 1-2 月社零同比+4.0%,相比 4Q24 增速略有提升;家用 电器和音响器材类同比+10.9%,保持较好增长,但与 Q4 的靓丽增速相比有 所回落,表明消费者新鲜感已过;补贴政策优化后的通信器材类同比 +26.2%。2）产业在线数据, 1-2 月空调内销出货量同 ...

| ー、行情复盘 | | --- | | (一) 板块：本周上涨 2.86%，跑赢大盘 1.28% | | (二) 个股：本周上市券商股价表现优异，平均涨幅 3.2% | | 二、重要政策与行业动态 . | | (一) 证监会党委传达学习习近平总书记重要讲话精神和全国两会精神 | | (二) 自然资源部、财政部联合发布《关于做好运用地方政府专项债券支持土地储备有关工作的通知》…………………………………………………………………… | | (三) 上交所受理傲拓科技科创板 IPO 项目 | | (四) 证监会发布《上市公司监管指引第 11 号——上市公司破产重整相关事项》 | | 三、重要市场数据 . | | (一) Ａ股市场交投维持活跃… | | (二) 本周 A 股股权融资超 35 亿元 | | (三) 本周市场共计 19 只新基金发行 | | 四、估值与投资建议 . | | (一) 证券板块当前 PB 估值 1.47x（截至３月１４日） . | | (二) 投资建议 . | | 五、风险提示 . | 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 国银河证券|CGS -12.00% -10.00 ...

瞬汻煝疵 · 掾駬䫟⼴ 耘臅⥈䭶┬罥銩⭀ꅌꨴ3 劓⬑駖㠁✇ꓨ㗛鰑☋㴼⚃ꆒꀀ ———耘臅⥈ 3 劓駖䛉⚷駖掾駬䫟⼴ 2025 䌑 3 劓 20 傽 呦䖦間掾 ⮕卥䉞 匤鱪 (010-8092-7696 *yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn ⮕卥䉞溫駘罒焺S0130522030004 潸⪸煝疵 2025-03-17վ䳀䮵巆鰆┺뀉鉿Ⲙ做呿տ闌騣巆鰆愗 ⲇꓤ侒䭰䑜䫌鰑做⻔ 2025-03-10╚㎼艧䉗⺉◜⛓⡽婞䛨撬ꓨ卐 2025-03-05㸉 A 艧䉗㐙䫌鰑溸⼅獏2025 䌑侓䍠 䈰✑䫟⼴ꓤ侒〘◲ꓨ锢⟥⺵ 2025-02-21ⷂ⻔鰑ꓭ┱㎼ꮪ鰑ꓭ缏卐⻎뀡ꂖ儱⮕ 婤 2025-02-20DeepSeek ⬐⮄峒AI 鰘茤Ⲏꅌ䉗㐙臔 ⲹꓨ卐 2025-02-13㐌做═⚷㸉 A 艧䫌鰑缏卐劔〘◲⼅獏 2025-02-08վ⪸◟鰑勔䉗㐙⢳㟲ꓭ鄌"◩碋㝕倁皺" 㵄类䟩閒տ闌騣ꓭ鄌"◩碋㝕倁皺"⪴缔㺥譻㎽ 2025-02-07璇⮱☭䈰冝茤 ETF 䫌鰑⚃⡽⮕卥臔撌 燖璇䪫䱢ꓭ AI ⪢分╃ꨄ 2025-02-0510%⪸瓭Ⲏ䔰ꭶ A 艧溸缏卐䙎⬐⮄╚ 耘⪸瓭⫙ⶬ绣A 艧⮃⺛ꨄ"⸐ⲇ嵱駽" 2025-02-0 ...

宏观动态报告 以静制动的美联储态度并不鹰派 -3月 FOMC 会议 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080003 经济预测和点阵图整体指向滞胀担忧的增加,不过基准情况仍是软着陆,通胀预期虽然短期上调也并不 ● 鹰派:美联储官员短期更担忧通胀,但即使在滞胀预期升温之下也维持了 2 次降息的引导,这略显鸽 派。3 月 FOMC 会议的 SEP 将 GDP 增速预期从去年 12 月的 2.1%下调至 1.7%, 将 PCE 和核心 PCE 通胀增速分别从 2.5%和 2.5%上调至 2.7%和 2.8%（同时 2026 年通胀预期变化不大, 美联储 判断关税通胀是暂时性的） 将失业率从 4.3%上调至 4.4%的自然失业率水平附近。经济增长预期的下 调和通胀预期的上调主要在反映美联储对于关税冲击的评估,目前来看,美联储预期特朗普的关税和其 他经济改革可能拖累经济下行 0.4 个百分点，使名义通胀回升 0.3 个百分点，这相较于市场和学术研究 机构的测算处于偏下限水平。 2024 年 3 月 20 日 分析师 张迪 ☎: 010-8092-7737 ...

公司点评报告 · 农林牧渔行业 24年生猪量价齐升,屠宰业务实现单月盈利 2025 年 3 月 19 日 核心观点 牧原股份(股票代码:002714.SZ) 资料来源:Wind,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 | 维持评级 | | --- | | 推荐 | 分析师 谢芝优 ☎: 021-68597609 网: xiezhiyou_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519020001 | 市场数据 | 2025-3-19 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 002714.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | 38.74 | | 上证指数 | 3426.43 | | 总股本(万股) | 546,276.82 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 381,072.29 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 1476.27 | 2025-3-19 相对沪深 300 表现图 30% 20% 10% (10% -10% -20% ● 事件:公司发布 2024年年度报 ...