商业贸易行业周报：零售板块2024年中报前瞻

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The retail sector is facing pressure in offline consumption, with notable differentiation among leading companies in cross-border and beauty care segments. The report highlights a significant decline in gold and jewelry retail sales, with expectations for companies with a higher proportion of investment gold bars to perform better in Q2 2024 [4][5]. - The report suggests a return to safety margins, recommending a focus on dividend strategies and asset values, particularly in gold and jewelry, beauty care new product performance, and overseas business developments [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Offline consumption is under pressure in Q2, with gold and jewelry retail sales showing a decline of -0.1% and -11% year-on-year in April and May respectively. Companies like Cai Bai and China Gold are expected to see revenue growth of 12%-18% and 10%-15% respectively in Q2 2024 due to their higher investment gold bar ratios [4][5]. - Department stores are also expected to face revenue declines, with Chongqing Department Store projected to decrease by 6%-2% and Wangfujing by 10%-5% in Q2 2024 [5]. - Supermarkets like Yonghui Supermarket are expected to see a revenue decline of 10%-5%, while Jiajiayue is projected to grow by 0%-5% [5]. Cross-Border E-commerce and Beauty Care - Cross-border e-commerce companies like Xiaoshangcheng are expected to benefit from high export demand, with revenue growth projected at 10%-20% in Q2 2024 [5]. - In the beauty care segment, companies like Proya and Aimeike are expected to see significant revenue growth of 45%-50% and 25%-35% respectively in Q2 2024 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Xiaoshangcheng, Chongqing Department Store, Laofengxiang, and Cai Bai, while also keeping an eye on China Gold, Zhou Daxing, Proya, and others for potential investment opportunities [6].