逆变器行业2024年中期策略报告：亚非拉火热、欧洲需求复苏、美国格局良好

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The inverter industry is experiencing strong growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with countries like Brazil, India, Pakistan, and parts of the Middle East showing significant demand, making them new growth points for Chinese photovoltaic inverter exports [2] - The European market is recovering, with inverter export data showing improvement from January to May 2024, and the industry's worst period is likely over [3] - The US market is seeing robust demand, especially for ground-mounted power stations, with favorable conditions such as smooth customs clearance, IRA subsidies, and anti-circumvention exemptions driving growth [4] Regional Market Analysis Asia, Africa, and Latin America - South Africa and Brazil are experiencing demand recovery due to the end of inventory reduction and falling interest rates [8] - India and Pakistan are seeing explosive growth due to favorable policies and rising electricity prices [9] - The Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, has become a significant export destination, with exports to Saudi Arabia reaching 544 million yuan in the first five months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 695.53% [11] - Southeast Asia is experiencing stable growth, with Thailand and the Philippines showing year-on-year export growth of 38.15% and 25.51%, respectively [13] - Zhejiang Province leads in inverter exports, with a 25% year-on-year increase in May 2024, significantly outperforming the national average [16] Europe - The European market is recovering, with inverter exports showing positive trends in the first five months of 2024, and the industry's worst period is likely over [3] United States - The US market is experiencing strong demand for ground-mounted power stations, with a 93.44% year-on-year increase in new photovoltaic installations in Q1 2024 [21] - The IRA Act provides subsidies for both demand and supply in the US photovoltaic market, including investment tax credits (ITC) and production tax credits (PTC) [25][26] - The US market for microinverters is dominated by Enphase, which holds a 60% global market share, but domestic Chinese companies have the potential to increase their market share [37] - The US energy storage market is growing rapidly, with a 52.76% CAGR from 2021 to 2023, and domestic Chinese companies have significant growth potential in both residential and large-scale storage markets [41][47] Company Valuation and Market Share - Key inverter companies such as Sungrow Power, Deye, Ginlong Technologies, and others are rated as "Overweight" with detailed valuation metrics provided [6] - In the US market, domestic Chinese companies like Sungrow Power have a relatively low market share in both residential and large-scale storage markets, indicating significant growth potential [47] Technology and Market Trends - The US market is seeing a shift towards string inverters in ground-mounted power stations, with domestic Chinese companies holding a competitive advantage in this segment [35] - The US energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with the photovoltaic storage pairing rate projected to reach nearly 30% by 2027 [45]