特朗普领先“预热”大选交易：特朗普当选概率相对更高

Group 1: Election Context - The first presidential debate between Biden and Trump took place on June 28, 2024, with Trump reportedly winning according to CNN, where about two-thirds of viewers favored his performance[4] - Biden's approval rating is low, with only 40% of respondents satisfied with his performance, which is lower than Trump's approval during a similar period[7][15] - The presidential election is scheduled for November 5, 2024, marking a critical period for both candidates[35] Group 2: Key States and Polling - The election outcome heavily depends on "swing states," with seven key states holding a total of 93 electoral votes[23] - Trump has a significant lead in five of these swing states, with advantages ranging from 3% to nearly 6%[23] - In Michigan and Wisconsin, both candidates are nearly tied, indicating a competitive landscape[23] Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump's economic policies are perceived as more expansionary, potentially leading to higher inflation, which has contributed to his lead in the polls[20][26] - The strong performance of the dollar is linked to Trump's favorable polling, as market sentiment shifts in anticipation of the election[20][26] Group 4: Debate Impact - Historical data suggests that televised debates rarely have a decisive impact on election outcomes, despite their potential to shift public opinion[16] - The focus of the debates is likely to be on candidates' abilities to address key voter concerns, such as the economy and immigration[16]