Group 1: USD Outlook - The USD index has shown a downward trend since the beginning of the year, primarily influenced by tariff policies, with a peak at 109 in early 2025 and a drop below 100 in April[1][7]. - Short-term fluctuations in the USD index are expected, with limited downward space before potential Fed rate cuts, while medium to long-term pressures include ongoing US debt issues, recession risks, and de-dollarization narratives[1][7]. - Key factors suppressing the USD include the continuous evolution of US debt issues, recession risks compounded by high interest rates, and the narrative of de-dollarization[1][7]. Group 2: HK Stock Market Strategy - Following a joint statement from China and the US on May 12, the Hang Seng Index rose nearly 3%, but the upward trend did not sustain, leading to a "wait and see" market attitude[2][10]. - Southbound capital inflows continue but at a slower pace, with over HKD 16.5 billion net inflow into the banking sector, while the technology sector faced a net outflow exceeding HKD 20.5 billion[2][10]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index is slightly below pre-tariff levels, indicating a gradual recovery in market sentiment[2][10]. Group 3: US Economic Outlook - The outlook for the US economy remains unclear due to fluctuating tariff policies and their impact on inflation, with a potential rise in overall inflation post-tariff implementation[3][14]. - The US federal budget deficit for the first half of 2025 has exceeded USD 1.3 trillion, marking the second-highest deficit for a half-year period in history[3][14]. - The combination of rising interest rates and upcoming debt ceiling negotiations presents significant challenges for US fiscal policy in the latter half of 2025[3][14]. Group 4: US Stock Market Outlook - Major US indices have recovered from significant declines, reflecting investor confidence in the US economic fundamentals and policy adjustments[4][17]. - The anticipated tax cuts from the "Beautiful America Act" are expected to create structural opportunities in the US stock market, particularly benefiting traditional energy and local automotive sectors[4][17]. - Despite the challenges posed by fluctuating tariff policies, the US stock market is projected to exhibit a volatile upward trend in the second half of 2025[4][17]. Group 5: US Treasury Yield Trends - US long-term treasury yields have risen above 5%, with the 20-year and 30-year yields maintaining levels above 5.0% since late May[5][21]. - The increase in yields is attributed to the downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's and concerns over the debt ceiling, which may lead to increased treasury supply and liquidity withdrawal[5][21]. - The expectation of delayed Fed rate cuts due to inflation concerns is likely to keep treasury yields elevated for an extended period[5][21].

Core Insights - The report discusses the recent rise in long-term US Treasury yields, with both 20-year and 30-year yields surpassing 5% and remaining above this level since late May 2023 [3][4][8] - The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16 is identified as a primary factor contributing to the increase in yields, leading to a disappointing auction for 20-year bonds on May 21, where the final yield was 5.047%, up 24 basis points from April [4][6] - Concerns regarding the US debt ceiling have resurfaced, particularly following the passage of the "Beautiful Bill" on May 22, which allows for a $4 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, suggesting a return to expansionary fiscal policies [4][6][7] - Market fears of inflation and delayed interest rate cuts are also contributing to the sustained high yields, with the report indicating that the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower rates could keep yields elevated for an extended period [8] Summary by Sections Recent Yield Trends - Long-term US Treasury yields have recently risen above 5%, with specific reference to the 20-year and 30-year bonds [3][5] - The yields have been influenced by a combination of credit rating downgrades, debt ceiling issues, and inflation concerns [4][8] Credit Rating Impact - The downgrade by Moody's has led to increased market volatility and higher yields, as all three major rating agencies have now rated US debt below the highest level [4][6] - The immediate effect was seen in the auction results, which reflected a significant increase in yield compared to previous months [4][6] Debt Ceiling Concerns - The passage of the "Beautiful Bill" has raised expectations of increased debt supply, which could further pressure yields upward [4][6][7] - Historical context is provided, noting that after previous debt ceiling resolutions, yields have tended to rise, indicating a potential pattern [6][7] Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - The report highlights that inflation fears and the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts are likely to maintain high yield levels [8] - The probability of a rate cut in June has dropped significantly, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy [8][11]

[Table_Title] 策略研究报告 2025年5月28日 周浩 孙英超 +852 2509 7582 +852 2509 2603 Hao.zhou@gtjas.com.hk billy.sun@gtjas.com.hk [Table_Summary]美股展望：政策博弈孕育新机遇 资料来源： Bloomberg ，国泰君安国际。 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 标普500指数 道琼斯指数 纳斯达克指数 2024/12/31=100 美股已基本收复"对等关税"造成的巨大跌幅 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 7 自 2025 年以来，标普 500 指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数经 历了显著的波动，三大指数均触及技术性修正甚至熊市区域。截至 5 月下旬， 三大指数基本收复了年内的跌幅，反映出投资者对美国经济基本面的信心以及 对政策调整的适应能力。 展望 2025 年下半年美股的整体走势，经济基本面仍是决定市场表现的核心因 素，我们认为 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the US stock market has experienced a strong rebound, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices rising by 6.4% and 4.5% respectively [3][4] - The primary catalyst for this rally was the unexpected positive outcome of the US-China trade negotiations, which led to significant reductions in bilateral tariffs [6][9] - The report highlights that sectors closely tied to global manufacturing and supply chains, such as information technology, consumer discretionary, and telecommunications, outperformed the S&P 500 index [3][5] Economic Factors - The US tariffs have become a dominant factor influencing the performance of the US stock market, primarily due to the widespread impact of Trump's tariff policies [9] - Concerns about tariffs potentially causing a rebound in US inflation and hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates have been alleviated by the recent tariff reductions [9][14] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021, which further supports the bullish sentiment in the stock market [10][14] Market Outlook - The report suggests that while the immediate outlook for the US stock market appears positive due to improved trade relations, uncertainties remain regarding the long-term effects of tariff policies and potential inflation risks [15] - The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut have been pushed back from July to September, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid ongoing economic assessments [14][15] - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance towards the US stock market, anticipating a period of consolidation in the near term [15]

[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 [Table_Summary] FICC 策略：关税恐慌退潮，美元美债何向？ 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 25-01 25-02 25-03 25-04 25-05 1年期美债收益率 2年期美债收益率 10年期美债收益率 % 中美关税暂缓后，短端与长端美债利率均出现显著回升 资料来源： Bloomberg ，国泰君安国际。 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 6 2025年5月14日 | 磨春立 | | --- | | +852 2509 7745 | | inmac zhan @atinc.com hk | 詹春立 张潇子骄 +852 2509 7745 +852 2509 5317 james.zhan@gtjas.com.hk hunter.zhang@gtjas.com.hk 宏观研究报告 中美贸易谈判达成共识，市场情绪得到短期提振。5月 12日，《中美日内 瓦经贸会谈联合声明》出炉，市场迅速从上周末还阴云密布的中美关税 摩擦得到极大的提振。此次中美贸易谈判取得阶段性成果 ...

2025年5月12日 周浩 黄凯鸿 +852 2509 7582 +852 2509 7214 [Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 [Table_Summary] 贸易谈判初见曙光，宏观风险再定价？ 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 彭博贸易不确定指数 黄金价格（美元/盎司，右轴） 宏观风险有所降温，黄金高位震荡 资料来源： Bloomberg ，国泰君安国际 宏 观 研 究 报 海 外 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 4 告 Hao.zhou@gtjas.com.hk kaihong.huang@gtjas.com.hk 市场关注的焦点是中美于周末在日内瓦进行的贸易谈判，从初步结果来看，中 美双方都表达了善意，也都表示谈判取得了重要的成果。对于市场而言，这无 疑是一针强心剂，消息公布后，避险资产如黄金、日元和债券价格出现下跌， 人民币则领衔亚洲货币继续上攻。 与过去几次的中美谈判相比，本次谈判双方表示会发出联合声明， ...

[Table_Title] 策略研究报告 2025年4月25日 | | | 周浩 黄凯鸿 孙英超 +852 2509 7582 +852 2509 7214 +852 2509 2603 hao.zhou@gtjas.com.hk kaihong.huang@gtjas.com.hk billy.sun@gtjas.com.hk [Table_Summary] 港股策略：关税摇摆中的内资选择 4 月初以来，特朗普政府的关税政策波动加剧，对港股的扰动加大，南向资金净流入 规模却突破新高。而在 4 月 22 日，美国对华降关税预期上升，港股市场连续两日上 涨，南向资金净流出。 南向资金这种短期逆势抄底的行为特征，在过去并不少见。在港股市场急促下跌时逆 势抄底，在市场持续上涨中获利了结。我们运用定量分析的方式，扫描南向资金在港 股市场极端波动时的行为特征，在历史中寻找南向资金是否具备显著的逆势买入行为 特点，以及这种行为如何随着市场阶段演化而变化。 统计结果显示，南向资金有"逆势操作"的风格特点。南向资金净买入额与恒指对数 收益率展现出一定的负相关性，具有一定的"跌买涨卖"特点。更重要的是，在港股 大幅下跌情景下， ...

[Table_Summary] 目 录 策略研究报告：港股策略：如何应对"特朗普波动"？_20250411 近期受海外资产价格波动影响，港股周一开盘补跌。我们认为未来短期港股或横盘整固，配置上可以选择 更为均衡的"哑铃型"结构。回调后的港股具备较高的配置价值，国内政策逆周期调节的预期上升，为港 股提供有力的支撑。另外，特朗普关税政策影响部分企业盈利前景，盈利预期难以短时间大幅改善。综合 来看，市场在短期更可能是横盘震荡，高分红风格能提供确定性溢价，或阶段性占优。此外，在外需走 弱、外部压力加大的背景下，内需相关行业或受益于消费政策预期升温。长期而言，科技成长风格是超额 收益的来源。 宏观研究报告：美国"股债汇"多杀：危机重重？_20250414 [Table_Title] 每周报告汇总 2025年4月17日 美国金融市场在过去一周剧烈波动，这导致市场一度怀疑基本面和技术面分析的有效性。从定性角度看， 金融资产价格走势从未脱离过基本面数据。美债利率的大幅上行，同时美元指数出现大幅下行，意味着对 于美元的"信任危机"。面对信任危机，特朗普政府如果不会对关税政策进行大幅修改，那么就只能寄望于 在较短时间内达成一揽子 ...

Economic Impact - The U.S. import tariffs are projected to increase from 2.5% in 2024 to 16.5%, the highest level since 1937, potentially raising $1.5 trillion in revenue from base tariffs and $1.3 trillion from punitive tariffs over the next decade[7] - The increase in tariffs is expected to reduce U.S. GDP by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, with a direct impact of nearly 2% on disposable income for American households in 2025[7] - Recent tariffs may lead to an overall inflation increase of 2.3% in the U.S., with food prices rising by 2.8% and automobile prices by 8.4%, costing the average American household approximately $3,800 annually[7] Market Reactions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by nearly 50 basis points recently, indicating a significant market reaction to economic data and commodity price fluctuations[11] - The U.S. dollar index has experienced a substantial decline, reflecting a "crisis of trust" in the dollar amidst rising Treasury yields[12] - The recent volatility in the financial markets has led to skepticism regarding the effectiveness of fundamental and technical analysis, with tariff negotiations becoming a primary focus for short-term investors[5] Inflation Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March increased by 2.4% year-on-year, the lowest level in seven months, slightly below the expected 2.5%[8] - The core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, marking the lowest increase since March 2021, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures[8] Government Response - The U.S. Treasury is closely monitoring the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, which is considered a key performance indicator (KPI) for the government[16] - The Trump administration may need to pursue a comprehensive trade agreement or rely on a significant economic downturn in non-U.S. economies to restore confidence if tariff policies remain unchanged[16]

Core Insights - The report indicates that after a strong start to the year, the Hong Kong stock market has entered a period of consolidation, with the technology and internet sectors being the main contributors to the earlier gains [2][3] - Despite the recent slowdown, the overall market remains active, with average daily trading volumes exceeding HKD 200 billion, significantly higher than the historical average of around HKD 1000 billion over the past decade [5][6] - The report highlights that foreign capital has been optimistic about the Hong Kong market, with significant inflows into technology and consumer sectors, driven by the performance of the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index [8][11] Market Performance - The technology sector has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with notable increases of 32.0% in information technology, 27.5% in discretionary consumption, and 18.7% in healthcare [3][4] - High-dividend sectors such as materials, energy, and finance have seen slight rebounds during the recent market fluctuations [3] Capital Flows - Southbound capital has accelerated its inflow into the Hong Kong market since Q4 2024, influenced by declining domestic risk-free interest rates and improved industry expectations, particularly in AI-related companies [11] - The report notes a shift in domestic investors' preferences from high-dividend sectors to technology and consumer industries, reflecting a growing interest in growth potential [11] Earnings and Valuation - Recent earnings reports from major technology companies have exceeded market expectations, with many planning to increase capital expenditures in computing and AI [12][14] - As investor expectations adjust and valuations recover to historical averages, there is increasing divergence in views regarding corporate earnings and future growth potential [14] Investment Strategy - The report recommends maintaining a "barbell" investment strategy, focusing on both technology and hardware sectors for revaluation opportunities while also holding stable high-dividend sectors for reliable income [15]