房地产行业2024年度中期投资策略：中流击水，奋楫者进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [9] Core Insights - The current real estate market in China faces three major contradictions: significant changes in supply-demand relationships, a downward shift in demand levels, and persistent structural pressure on housing prices [2][5][8] - To emerge from the bottom of the cycle, two necessary conditions must be met: the market must adjust adequately in both time and space, and policies must transition from conventional to extraordinary measures [6][24] - The market is entering the second half of its adjustment phase, with expectations for a gradual reduction in sales decline as policy effects are released [7][35] Summary by Sections Current Industry Contradictions - Significant changes in supply-demand relationships have been acknowledged by the central government, indicating a potential turning point earlier than expected [14][15] - The demand level has peaked between 2011 and 2015, with long-term factors now weakening, suggesting future demand will be lower than historical levels [17] - Structural pressure on housing prices remains, particularly in major cities where the rental yield is low compared to housing prices, indicating a misalignment in the market [19][20] Conditions for Recovery - The market must clear accumulated risks and reach a balanced state, while policies need to shift towards extraordinary measures to stimulate recovery [24][31] - Current policies are still in the early stages of extraordinary measures, with significant potential for future adjustments based on market conditions [31][32] Market Adjustment Phase - The macroeconomic environment limits residents' willingness to leverage, which may restrict the effectiveness of conventional policies [35][36] - Predictions indicate a 16.1% year-on-year decline in total sales area for 2024, with expectations for a gradual recovery in sales as the year progresses [35][39] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with core assets and supply-side optimization, as well as state-owned enterprises with stable cash flows and quality construction leaders [8][41][44]