耀看光伏第13期——太空光伏：万亿 蓝海市场，产业趋势明确 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 2026-01-23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 分析师及联系人 分析师 邬博华 分析师 曹海花 分析师 王耀 分析师 任佳惠 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524120006 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524070005 SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 分析师 申浩树 SAC执业证书编号：S0490525060004 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 通信和算力卫星带动太空光伏需求增长 02 晶硅渗透率提升，钙钛矿是终极技术路线 03 辅材迎来新变化，设备空间进一步打开 04 产业链共振，上下游企业均积极布局 目 录 %% research.95579.com 3 research.95579.com 4 01 低轨卫星已成为主流发展方向 卫星分布在LEO（低地球轨道）、MEO ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨保利发展（600048.SH） [Table_Title] 业绩短期承压，政策宽松预期下估值有望修复 ——保利发展 2025 年业绩快报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 周期压力下公司业绩难免承压，但考虑较充裕的未结资源、高盈利增量土储逐渐结转以及减值 影响逐渐弱化，一旦周期筑底或意味着较大盈利弹性。销售稳居行业首位，投资拓展较为积极， 重视土储质量优化。考虑周期压力下政策宽松预期提升，央企龙头估值修复可期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 袁佳楠 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490520070001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 保利发展（600048.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 业绩短期承压，政策宽松预期下估值有望修复 2] ——保利发展 2025 年业绩快报点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司 2025 年 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 research.95579.com 行业研究丨点评报告丨房地产 [Table_Title] 去年销量降幅收窄，关注今年重要政策节点 ——2025 年统计局房地产数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年销售/开竣工/到位资金基本维持双位数降幅、但降幅略收窄，统计局口径新房/二手房价 格指数降幅也有收窄、其中一线城市二手房价格指数降幅扩大，投资降幅明显扩大。伴随政策 阈值逐渐临近，近期政策端迎来边际优化，可能标志着政策窗口的重启，当前常规政策仍有空 间，超常规政策也有较大回旋余地，只是在时点上存在不确定性，关注后续重要政策节点。当 前股票位置较底部的溢价并不大，重视具备轻库存、好区域和产品力的龙头房企。此外，关注 拥有稳定现金流的经纪龙头、商业地产和央国企物管。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 宋子逸 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490522080002 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 1 [Table_Title 去年销量降幅收窄，关注今年重要政策节点 2] ——2025 年统计局房 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨汽车与汽车零部件 [Table_Title] 客车行业 12 月销量：大中客出口销量强劲，同 环比高增，宇通和金龙出口高景气 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月大中客出口销量强劲，同环比高增，国内承压。2025 年 12 月大中客车月度批发销量约 2.0 万辆，同比-1.4%，环比+56.5%，其中 12 月出海销量强势，大中客出口约 9098 辆，同比 +81.5%，环比+110.4%，国内大中客销量 1.1 万辆，同比-28.6%，环比+28.9%。分品类来看， 12 月大中公交客车销量 9796 辆，同比-32.6%，环比+30.6%，主要受国内销量下滑影响；大 中座位客车销量 9331 辆，同比+73.8%，环比+97.5%，12 月座位客车出口强劲带动同比高增。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 汽车与汽车零部件 cjzqdt11 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨小菜园（00999.HK） [Table_Title] 近期观点更新 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517020001 SAC：S0490520080013 SFC：BUX176 赵刚 杨会强 马健轩 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 小菜园在 2025 年 7 月实现高铁冠名列车首发与香港首店装修启动，双措并举推动品牌迈上新 台阶，11 月公司门店总数（含子品牌）突破了 800 家，12 月小菜园自营门店总数突破 810 家， 超额完成全年目标。看好公司未来围绕全球化、数字化与可持续化三大核心方向加速布局，供 应链赋能小菜园品牌继续加密现有城市、进驻新城市，"菜手"顺应消费趋势，成为公司第二大 品牌。公司定位契合当下餐饮行业消费趋势，在行业复苏下，有望凭借科学的标准化管理、完 备的供应链、优越的单店模型抢抓发展机遇。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 小菜园（00999.HK） cjzqdt111 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [9]. Core Insights - The current inventory replenishment cycle in the U.S. apparel industry is characterized by weak elasticity due to several factors, including K-shaped consumer spending, misalignment in brand recovery rhythms, and constraints faced by comprehensive sports brands [3][6]. - Despite the transition from inventory destocking to replenishment, the expected rebound in manufacturing performance and market response has not materialized as anticipated [6][19]. - The report forecasts limited replenishment elasticity in the near term, with potential improvements in terminal demand expected after the current interest rate cycle concludes [3][8]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the weak momentum in the current manufacturing replenishment cycle, noting that the U.S. apparel industry has transitioned to a phase of active replenishment after reducing inventory to healthy levels since Q1 2023 [6][17]. Analysis of Weak Replenishment Cycle - **Macro Perspective**: U.S. consumer spending is experiencing K-shaped differentiation, where high-income households support overall consumption while lower-income households face suppressed purchasing power and willingness to spend [7][32]. - **Brand Perspective**: The misalignment in recovery rhythms among brands has diluted overall replenishment elasticity, with brands like Adidas and Deckers already undergoing several quarters of replenishment without strong retail catalysts [7][30]. - **Industry Perspective**: The growth potential in the sports category is diminishing due to factors such as slowing penetration rates, reduced technological innovation, and diminishing returns from direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies [7][30]. Future Replenishment Elasticity Expectations - In the short term, historical inventory cycles suggest that mature brands may experience shorter replenishment periods, while growth-oriented brands could see longer cycles [8][19]. - The report indicates that after the current interest rate cycle, retail demand may improve, leading to a more resilient growth trajectory for top brands transitioning into replenishment phases [8][19]. - Recommended stocks include Crystal International and Shenzhou International, with a focus on companies like Wah Lee and Yue Yuen [8][19].

[Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司深度丨中烟香港（06055.HK） [Table_Title] 中烟香港深度： 稀缺的烟草出海巨头，内生外延共构未来 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Summary] 公司是中烟体系唯一烟草上市公司平台，承载"国际业务拓展+资本市场运作"使命。1、主业层 面，公司业务具备独家性，经营稳健且利润率稳定性强；2、中烟境外资产储备丰富，公司内生 &外延空间广阔。1）体系内方向：中烟体系在海外有大量优质资产，涵盖烟叶种植、卷烟生产、 品牌合作及销售网络建设等全产业链，初步估计整合空间为公司现有体量翻倍以上；2）体系外 方向：复盘国际烟草龙头，并购整合是持续扩张重要途径，也有望是公司海外拓展的潜在方向。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 蔡方羿 米雁翔 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490520070002 SFC：BUV463 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_scodeMsg2] 中烟香港（06055.HK） cjzqdt11111 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 31 % ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 2026 年第 2 周，通信板块上涨 0.99%，在长江一级行业中排名第 8 位；2026 年年初以来，通 信板块上涨 2.51%，在长江一级行业中排名第 19 位。台积电大幅上修 2026 年 Capex 至 520- 560 亿美元，直言产能非常紧张、未来三年资本支出将显著增加；AI 加速器营收占比提升明显， 2024-2029 年营收 CAGR 指引上调至接近 55%。OpenAI、CoreWeave、Meta 与 xAI 等头部 厂商持续扩建 AI 超算集群，锁定中长期算力与能源资源，全球 AI 算力需求强劲。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于海宁 SAC：S0490517110002 SFC：BUX641 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 行业研究丨行业周报丨通信设备Ⅲ [Table_Title] 通信周观点：台积电资本开支上修，算力供需共 振景气向好 报告要点 research.95579.com 1 通信设备Ⅲ cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 通信周观点：台积电资本开支上修，算力供需共 2] ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业速递：从 Claude Code 看 AI coding 产 业趋势 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 以 Claude、GPT-4 等为代表的大模型在长上下文理解、复杂推理与代码生成质量上取得突破， 使其能处理从单文件到整个代码库的工程问题。带来的改变：1）从工具到决策、从被动到主动； 2）生产效率重构：代码生成的边际成本显著下降。从国内外产业进展看，AI Coding 市场正在 快速扩容。根据 Spherical Insights 预测，到 2032 年，AI Coding 市场规模或将超过 295 亿美 元。从渗透率看，根据 IDC 统计，美国 91%的开发者都使用 AI 编程工具，国内目前渗透率 30%、未来有望快速提升。建议关注 AI Coding 相关厂商。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 宋浪 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 1 月 12 日，Anthropic 发布 AI 办公新产品 Cowork ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shortage of AI electronic cloth, particularly Low CTE electronic cloth, driven by increased demand from companies like Apple and Qualcomm for chip substrates and printed circuit boards. The only supplier, Nitto Denko, has not increased production capacity, creating opportunities for domestic companies like China National Materials and Honghe Technology to fill the gap and accelerate domestic substitution [5][6] - Ordinary electronic cloth is expected to see an upward trend in prices from 2025 to 2026, following a period of price stabilization. The price of ordinary electronic cloth has risen from 3.4 CNY/m in early 2025 to 4.1 CNY/m in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [6] - Cement shipments have slightly increased due to seasonal demand recovery, while glass inventory has decreased. The average shipment rate for key domestic cement companies is around 40%, with a 1.2 percentage point increase month-on-month [7][24] Summary by Sections Cement - In mid-January, cement demand has shown signs of recovery due to warmer temperatures in southern regions and pre-holiday construction rushes, with an average shipment rate of 40% for key cement companies, up 1.2 percentage points month-on-month and 7.7 percentage points year-on-year [7][30] - The national average cement price is 352.58 CNY/ton, down 4.68 CNY/ton month-on-month and down 55.97 CNY/ton year-on-year [24] - Cement inventory stands at 57.44%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points month-on-month [24] Glass - The national average price for glass is 62.61 CNY/weight box, up 0.63 CNY/weight box month-on-month but down 12.34 CNY/weight box year-on-year [37] - The total inventory of glass in key monitored provinces is 4,986 million weight boxes, a decrease of 209 million weight boxes month-on-month [36][37] Industry Outlook for 2026 - The report identifies three main lines for investment: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain. The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply, with a significant shift towards renovation demand in housing expected to drive industry demand back to historical highs [8] - The African chain highlights undervalued growth opportunities in the African market, with companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement recommended for their potential in overseas markets [8] - The AI chain emphasizes the upgrade of special electronic cloth, with a focus on Low-Dk products and the significant opportunity for domestic substitution in Low CTE supply [8]