APT(688617) 东方财富·2024-07-01 12:22Investment Rating - Buy (upgraded) with a 12-month target price of 593.83 RMB [5][6] Core Views - The company is a dual leader in electrophysiology and vascular intervention, with significant growth potential [2] - The acquisition by Mindray will strengthen the company's leading position in the domestic vascular intervention market [2][5] - The company's electrophysiology and vascular intervention products are comprehensive, with a first-mover advantage and leading product capabilities [3] - The company's revenue CAGR from 2017 to 2023 was 48.64%, with net profit margin increasing from 17.68% in 2017 to 31.64% in 2023 [3][43] Electrophysiology Market - The domestic electrophysiology surgery volume is expected to reach 574,600 cases by 2025, with a CAGR of 28% from 2021 to 2025 [3] - The domestic electrophysiology medical device market CAGR is expected to be 42.3% from 2020 to 2024, benefiting domestic leaders like the company [3] - The company's electrophysiology products, including PFA (Pulsed Field Ablation) systems, are expected to drive long-term growth, with PFA surgeries potentially accounting for 40%-50% of the market [3][11] Vascular Intervention Market - The company has a comprehensive product line in coronary and peripheral vascular intervention, with a first-mover advantage in the domestic market [3] - The company's vascular intervention products, including coronary and peripheral vascular devices, are expected to see continued growth due to increased hospital penetration and market coverage [9][10] - The company's OEM business is also growing, with a 31.67% year-on-year increase in 2023 [10] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be 2.215 billion RMB in 2024, 2.944 billion RMB in 2025, and 3.875 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 34.22%, 32.93%, and 31.63% respectively [6][7] - Net profit is expected to be 691.06 million RMB in 2024, 923.31 million RMB in 2025, and 1.211 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 29.43%, 33.61%, and 31.16% respectively [6][7] - EPS is projected to be 10.34 RMB in 2024, 13.81 RMB in 2025, and 18.11 RMB in 2026 [6][7] Key Assumptions - The company's electrophysiology revenue is expected to grow at 28%, 32%, and 35% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins of 74.80%, 75.10%, and 75.50% respectively [9] - The company's coronary intervention revenue is expected to grow at 35%, 32%, and 30% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins of 72.20%, 72.50%, and 72.80% respectively [9] - The company's peripheral intervention revenue is expected to grow at 42%, 39%, and 35% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins of 72.00%, 72.40%, and 72.80% respectively [10] Innovation and Competitive Advantages - The company's PFA system is the first globally to integrate pressure sensing, magnetic-electric dual positioning, and pulsed ablation, which is expected to revolutionize the electrophysiology market [11] - The company's products are well-positioned to benefit from domestic substitution and the reshaping of the competitive landscape in the electrophysiology market [11] - The company's vascular intervention products are expected to see increased demand due to the growth in PCI surgeries and the expansion of the peripheral vascular market [11][59]