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社会服务 行业投资策略周报 ：体验型奢侈消费趋势向好，个人奢侈品市场承压
CAITONG SECURITIES·2024-07-01 14:22

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the social services and luxury consumption sector [1] Core Views - The trend of experiential luxury consumption is favorable, while the personal luxury market is under pressure [1] - LVMH Group's acquisition of Chez L'Ami Louis aligns with the shift towards experiential luxury and serves as a hedge against declining wine sales [2][10][11] - The global luxury market reached a record size of over 1.5 trillion euros in Q1 2024, with experiential luxury outperforming personal luxury [3][12] Industry Dynamics LVMH's Strategic Moves - LVMH acquired Chez L'Ami Louis, a historic Parisian bistro, to enhance its experiential luxury portfolio [2][10] - The acquisition aligns with LVMH's strategy to diversify into high-end tourism and hospitality [10] - LVMH's wine and spirits division saw a 16% YoY decline in Q1 2024, prompting the move into experiential dining [11] Personal Luxury Market Trends - The personal luxury market is expected to contract by 1-3% in Q1 2024 due to macroeconomic pressures and shifting consumer preferences [3][12] - Jewelry and small luxury items are leading growth, while footwear shows signs of slowing [3][13] - Europe and Japan show resilience, while China and the US face challenges [3][13] Industry Data Luxury Sales Performance - LVMH's revenue grew by 3% YoY in Q1 2024, while Kering's revenue declined by 10% [20] - Hermès and Moncler reported strong growth of 17% and 16% respectively in Q1 2024 [20] - Prada's revenue grew by 17% in Q1 2024, maintaining consistent performance [20] E-commerce Performance - In May 2024, luxury brand sales on Tmall declined by 11% YoY, with 12 out of 17 tracked brands showing negative growth [21] - Valentino, Van Cleef & Arpels, and Balenciaga were among the few brands with positive sales growth on Tmall [21][22] Swiss Watch Exports - Swiss watch exports fell by 2.1% YoY in May 2024, with exports to Greater China (Hong Kong and Mainland) declining by 22.7% and 18% respectively [4][26] - Compared to 2019 levels, Swiss watch exports to the US grew by 72.9%, while exports to Hong Kong and Mainland China declined by 35.5% and 13.3% respectively [26][27]