中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：银行业基本面最新跟踪│信贷投放、资产质量与地产新政落地

Banking Sector - Credit issuance is on track with the expected timeline, with corporate loans driven by external demand, emerging industries, and inclusive finance, while retail loan growth faces pressure [29] - Deposit competition intensifies due to the recovery of the wealth management market and the prohibition of manual interest rate adjustments, impacting state-owned and joint-stock banks more than city and rural commercial banks [29] - Net interest margin (NIM) pressure persists, with asset-side pricing under downward pressure, while liability-side costs decline slowly due to the trend of term deposits [29] - Asset quality remains stable overall, with corporate loans maintaining robustness, while retail loans, especially mortgages, consumer loans, and credit cards, show signs of rising non-performing loans (NPLs) [29] - Real estate policy implementation faces challenges, with slow progress in affordable housing loans and delivery of pre-sold homes due to funding constraints and usage restrictions [29] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The official manufacturing PMI for June 2024 remained flat at 49.5%, with production, new orders, and raw material inventory indices declining, while supplier delivery times improved, masking weaker economic momentum [9] - Production resilience is supported by exports, with new export orders for computer and electronic equipment industries above 53%, and equipment manufacturing PMI at 51% [9] - Raw material price pressures eased, benefiting mid- and downstream industries, with large, medium, and small enterprises showing divergent performance [9] - Domestic demand remains weak, with the real estate and infrastructure sectors dragging down economic activity, as seen in the decline of construction business activity and employment indices [9] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed in June 2024, with a decline of 8.7%, driven by policy concerns over drug price controls and weak earnings expectations [14] - GLP-1-related companies, such as Nuotai Biotech, outperformed due to strong earnings forecasts, highlighting the high-growth potential of the GLP-1 industry chain [14][17] - The sector is expected to rebound from Q3 2024, supported by low base effects, policy tailwinds for innovative drugs, and reduced anti-corruption pressures [15] - Hospital-related products, including drugs, diagnostics, and equipment, are poised for recovery as the anti-corruption campaign winds down and supportive policies take effect [40] Satellite Internet Industry - China's satellite internet market is projected to grow from 292.5 billion yuan in 2021 to 446.92 billion yuan in 2025, driven by policy support and the need to secure orbital resources [21] - Satellite manufacturing is a key focus, with state-owned enterprises and private companies collaborating to deploy over 2,300 satellites by 2025 [22] - Rocket recycling technology breakthroughs and the completion of new launch facilities in Hainan are expected to reduce costs and support high-frequency satellite launches [45] - Satellite applications, such as direct-to-mobile satellite communication, are expanding, with significant demand expected in low-altitude aviation and emergency communication scenarios [46] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 52.3% in June 2024, the lowest since August 2023, due to funding constraints and adverse weather conditions [9] - Infrastructure projects face challenges from funding shortages and slower fiscal spending, with asphalt production rates indicating weaker-than-expected progress [13] - Real estate and capital market services remain under pressure, with low business activity indices reflecting weak demand and investor sentiment [13]