2024年下半年宏观及大类资产配置展望：僵局之下

Domestic Economic Outlook - Domestic consumption remains sluggish, with real estate still searching for a bottom, and infrastructure funding is ample but lacks projects[1] - The overall domestic economy is in a painful transition period, with severe industry differentiation and weak old drivers persisting[1] - Exports performed well in the first half of the year, and leading indicators suggest that this trend may continue until the end of the year[1] U.S. Economic Insights - The U.S. economy is expected to remain balanced, with no significant recession anticipated, despite some weakening indicators in Q2[23] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4% as of May, up 0.6 percentage points from its low of 3.4%[12] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has raised its fiscal deficit forecast for the year from $1.5 trillion to $1.9 trillion, with a deficit rate increase from 5.3% to 6.7%[15] Market Trends and Risks - The risk of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates this year remains significant, influenced by economic performance and inflation expectations[30] - The bond market is expected to experience differentiation, with U.S. Treasury yields remaining high due to increased supply from fiscal deficits[59] - The RMB faces depreciation pressure, with the central bank's stance being crucial for its future trajectory[66] Export Performance - Export growth is primarily driven by an increase in export quantities, despite ongoing negative PPI impacts on prices[52] - The manufacturing cycle and inventory cycle will be key factors in the evolution of exports, with current global conditions supporting continued demand[48]