商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美元走强压制大宗价格，棉花短期承压 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-08-22 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5970.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5855.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 15100.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.36，涨跌幅-1.33%。美棉花收 67.47，涨跌幅-0.09%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 15751.0 张，涨跌幅为-3.03%；郑棉仓单 7335.0 张， 涨跌幅 ...

期货研究报告 宏观金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 股指日报 走势评级： 震荡 宋婧琪 从业资格证号：F03100886 投资咨询证号：Z0021165 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：songjingqi@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 日内再现探底回升，短多单建议日平 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 08 月 21 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 宏观股市信息： 股指盘面回顾： 核心逻辑小结： 短期来看，投资者情绪保持强势，上周与牛市预期相关的券商等板块再次跑 出亮眼的成绩，这一背景下，单边投资者没有必要逆势看空，期权卖购端也 会面临保证金波动的压力。另一方面，板块轮动的特征还在持续（近几日电 子、通信等重启领涨，反内卷方向调整），表明牛市主线尚未确立，结构性 慢牛行情的形成仍需时间。综合来看，近期市场已显现一定畏高情绪，但资 金入场承接意愿充足。特别是上周五指数探底回升并创下高换手率，这一信 号显示尽管短期市场情绪仍 ...

| 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 国际糖区间波动，短期保持震荡 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-08-21 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：7 月起，云南、内蒙古遭遇极端降水，降雨量远超常年，局地甘蔗、 甜菜受灾，需持续监测对糖产量的潜在影响。暑期冷饮消费拉动食糖需求季 节性增长。同时，受国内外价差扩大驱动，近期食糖进口大幅攀升，但全年 进口总量预计仍在预期区间。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：全国大部分棉花产区正处于开花的高峰期，而新疆的部分地区已进 入裂铃吐絮阶段，整体生长进度较往年提前。根据中国气象局的预测，8 月 新疆及长江流域的棉区将面临较高的气温和降水不足，这使得棉花遭受高温 热害的风险增加。目前，棉花的商业库存持续下降，且棉纺织的旺季即将来 临，因此棉价受到一定 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 2 期货研究报告 印度棉花产量预期增加，短期震荡运行 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-08-20 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：7 月起，云南、内蒙古遭遇极端降水，降雨量远超常年，局地甘蔗、 甜菜受灾，需持续监测对糖产量的潜在影响。暑期冷饮消费拉动食糖需求季 节性增长。同时，受国内外价差扩大驱动，近期食糖进口大幅攀升，但全年 进口总量预计仍在预期区间。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：全国大部分棉花产区正处于开花的高峰期，而新疆的部分地区已进 入裂铃吐絮阶段，整体生长进度较往年提前。根据中国气象局的预测，8 月 新疆及长江流域的棉区将面临较高的气温和降水不足，这使得棉花遭受高温 热害的风险增加。目前，棉花的商业库存持 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 巴西前两周出口数据缩减，白糖短期震荡运行 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-08-19 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：7 月起，云南、内蒙古遭遇极端降水，降雨量远超常年，局地甘蔗、 甜菜受灾，需持续监测对糖产量的潜在影响。暑期冷饮消费拉动食糖需求季 节性增长。同时，受国内外价差扩大驱动，近期食糖进口大幅攀升，但全年 进口总量预计仍在预期区间。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 2 免责声明 本报告由信达期货有限公司（以下简称"信达期货"）制作及发布。 本公司已取得期货交易咨询业务资格，交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1445 号。 棉花：全国大部分棉花产区正处于开花的高峰期，而新疆的部分地区已进 入裂铃吐絮 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bull market sentiment continued to ferment last week, with the stock index hitting a new high for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3,700 - point mark during the week, and the small - cap growth style outperformed. The overseas market sentiment returned to caution, and the US stock market was basically flat. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level this week, and the one - sided trading strategy should focus on short - term long positions within the day [1][2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Last Week's Stock Index Operation Review 1. Bull Market Atmosphere Continued to Ferment, and A - shares Reached a New High - The bull market atmosphere continued to ferment last week, and the stock index hit a new high for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3,700 points. Among the four broad - based indexes, CSI 1000 (+4.09%) > CSI 500 (+3.88%) > SSE 50 (+2.37%) > SSE 50 (+1.57%). Overseas, the international market sentiment became cautious, and US stocks were basically flat, with the Nasdaq rising 0.81% [1][8] 2. Communications and Electronics Led the Rise, and Trading Volume Increased Rapidly - From the perspective of Shenwan's primary industry classification, most sectors rose last week. Communications (+7.66%) and electronics (+7.02%) led the gains, while banks (-3.19%) and steel (-2.04%) lagged. The A - share trading volume increased rapidly and exceeded 2 trillion at the end of the week [2][9] 3. The Premium of Stock Index Futures Narrowed Rapidly, and the Option Volatility Increased Rapidly - In the futures market, the basis of each stock index futures (spot - futures) declined last week. In operation, short - term long positions within the day are appropriate, and it is an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions when there is a sharp decline. In the options market, the implied volatility of stock index options increased, and the at - the - money IV of the current - month SSE 300 Index reached around 18%. One can try short - term double - selling to reduce volatility [3][10] II. Fundamental Elements Review and Market Outlook 1. The Central Bank Conducted a Net Withdrawal of 41.49 Billion Yuan in the Open Market Last Week - In terms of inter - bank liquidity, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 41.49 billion yuan in the open market last week, with 71.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 112.67 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities. Inter - bank interest rates changed little, with Shibor overnight rising 8.36bp, Shibor one - week rising 2.94bp, etc. [69] 2. Short - Term Sentiment Remained Strong, and One - Sided Operations Became More Difficult - In the short term, investor sentiment remained strong. The brokerage sector related to the bull market expectation performed well. However, the rotation of sectors continued, indicating that the main line of the bull market has not been established. The market showed some fear of high prices, but the willingness of funds to enter the market was strong. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a high level this week, and one - sided trading strategies should focus on short - term long positions within the day [2][70] III. Economic Data & Financial Event Forecast 1. Macroeconomic Data Release - On August 19th (20:30), the data of new housing starts in the US in July will be released [101] 2. Key Financial Events - There are no major financial events [101]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July has damaged local sugarcane and beets, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. Summer cold - drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Recently, sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding domestic - foreign price gap, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of blooming, and some parts of Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. According to the China Meteorological Administration, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin may face high - temperature heat damage in August. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, which supports cotton prices [1] Group 3: Summary According to Data Tables 1. Price and Spread Data - **Foreign Market Quotes**: On August 13 - 14, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 16.83 dollars to 16.58 dollars, a decline of 1.49%, and the price of US cotton dropped from 67.7 dollars to 67.59 dollars, a decrease of 0.16% [3] - **Spot Prices**: From August 13 to 14, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased from 5970.0 to 5980.0, a rise of 0.17%, and in Kunming, it increased from 5855.0 to 5860.0, a rise of 0.09%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decline of 0.17%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15050.0 [3] - **Spreads**: For sugar spreads such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, and for cotton spreads like CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, CF09 - 01, most showed a downward trend from August 13 to 14, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 decreased from 51.0 to 40.0, a decline of 21.57%, and CF01 - 05 decreased from 40.0 to 30.0, a decline of 25.00% [3] - **Basis**: For sugar basis (01, 05, 09) and cotton basis (01, 05, 09), the changes were mixed. For instance, the sugar 01 basis increased from 198.0 to 201.0, a rise of 1.52%, while the cotton 09 basis decreased from 1358.0 to 1339.0, a decline of 1.40% [3] 2. Other Data - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.95 from August 13 to 14, 2025 [3] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1454.0 from August 13 to 14, 2025 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR601C5700 is 0.0872, and its underlying futures is SR601 with a historical volatility of 6.26. The implied volatility of CF601C14200 is 0.1134, and its underlying futures is CF601 with a historical volatility of 5.6 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 13 to 14, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 17529.0 to 17284.0, a decline of 1.40%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 8006.0 to 7922.0, a decline of 1.05% [3] Group 4: Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer of relevant industry associations [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for both sugar and cotton [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugarcane and beet crops, and continuous monitoring of its impact on sugar production is needed. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Recently, sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding domestic - foreign price gap, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces the risk of heat damage. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, providing some support for cotton prices [1] Group 3: Data Summary 1. Price and Spread Data - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 12 to 13, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.71% from 16.95 to 16.83 dollars, and the price of US cotton decreased by 1.08% from 68.44 to 67.7 dollars [3] - **Spot Prices**: From August 12 to 13, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased by 0.17% from 5960.0 to 5970.0, and in Kunming it increased by 0.69% from 5815.0 to 5855.0. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly by 0.07% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15050.0 [3] - **Spreads**: There were significant changes in various sugar and cotton spreads from August 12 to 13, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 increased by 8.51%, SR05 - 09 decreased by 20.00%, and CF01 - 05 decreased by 42.86% [3] 2. Other Data - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.2 from August 12 to 13, 2025 [3] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1515.0 from August 12 to 13, 2025 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5700, SR601P5700, CF601C14200, and CF601P14200 are 0.0894, 0.0914, 0.1116, and 0.1113 respectively [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 12 to 13, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% from 17853.0 to 17529.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 1.00% from 8087.0 to 8006.0 [3] Group 4: Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has obtained the futures trading consulting business qualification and is a comprehensive settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, etc. [2][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the stock index has been rising hesitantly. Although the technical pressure has been increasing, the actual retracement is far less than expected, indicating that the short - term market sentiment remains strong. This week, this strong state is expected to continue, but to break through the current oscillatory pattern, new macro - level support is needed [3] - The rotation of sectors is still significant. Last week, the national defense and military industry concepts soared, while the anti - involution direction faded. In the pre - emptive market without performance realization, investors need to pay attention to the previous high pressure [3] - In August, the positive factors are expected to be limited, including the policy vacuum period after the Politburo meeting and the risk of downward revision of expectations due to the intensive release of corporate semi - annual reports. The general upward trend of the stock index is the market's main theme, but in the short term, the safety cushion for unilateral long positions has shrunk, and there is an expected phased retracement in August. It is recommended to take short - term long positions intraday, and subsequent sharp drops are opportunities to re - enter the market for long positions [3] 3. Summary of Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - Sino - US issued the "Joint Statement of the Sino - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks". The US promised to continue adjusting the measures of imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, and both sides continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12 [4] - Three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", clarifying that from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, eligible personal consumption loans can enjoy fiscal interest subsidies [4] 3.2 Stock Index盘面 Review - **Market Tracking**: In the previous trading day, the A - share market oscillated upwards. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.61%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.52%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.41%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.28%. In terms of sectors, motorcycles (+3.32%) and computer hardware (+2.18%) led the gains, while aerospace and military industry (-1.26%) and chemical fiber industry (-1.18%) lagged. More than 2,000 stocks rose, and 60 stocks hit the daily limit, with a relatively poor profit - making effect [4] - **Technical Tracking**: The daily and weekly lines maintain an upward trend, while the monthly line remains in an oscillatory market. Among different varieties, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have performed strongly in recent days, while the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 show signs of marginal weakening [4] - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of the A - share market slightly increased to 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating a moderately positive trading sentiment [4] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - **Futures Operation**: The short - term sentiment is strong, but the safety cushion for long positions has shrunk. It is recommended to take short - term long positions intraday or wait and see. For the IH - IM spread, a left - hand layout can be made in advance [3] - **Options Operation**: The implied volatility of stock index options has flattened, with the at - the - money IV of the CSI 300 in the current month fluctuating between 12 - 13%. During the narrow - range oscillation period, the cost - effectiveness of participating in options is not high. It is recommended to wait and see for the second wave of enhanced volatility [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Report's Core View - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall recently in the Inner Mongolia production area, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **External Market Quotes**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the price of US sugar was $16.54, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton was $66.84, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained at 5960.0, with a 0.00% change; the price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 5825.0 to 5815.0, a - 0.17% change; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.11% change; the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained at 15050.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. Spread Data - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 11.90%, SR05 - 09 increased by - 1.36%, and SR09 - 01 decreased by - 6.67% [3]. - **Cotton Spreads**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, CF01 - 05 increased by 40.00%, CF05 - 09 increased by 16.67%, and CF09 - 01 increased by 22.50% [3]. Basis Data - **Sugar Basis**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by - 17.86%, the basis of sugar 05 decreased by - 13.61%, and the basis of sugar 09 decreased by - 25.85% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the basis of cotton 01 decreased by - 6.56%, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by - 4.81%, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by - 2.63% [3]. Import Price and Profit Data - **Import Price**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA was 78.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Profit Space**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the sugar import profit was 1515.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. Option and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Options**: For options such as SR601C5600, SR601P5600, CF601C14000, and CF601P14000, the implied volatility and relevant futures contract information are provided [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by - 2.12%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by - 1.04% [3]. Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., which is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges [8].