Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the economic fundamentals are relatively cold. To achieve the economic growth target, policies in the fourth quarter still need to be strengthened. The newly announced 500 billion in new policy - based financial instruments may have various sources of funds, and there is still a certain probability of releasing the debt space limit. The "anti - involution" policy has had an impact on PPI and industrial enterprise profits, but the subsequent recovery process remains tortuous [1][10][13]. - Abroad, the Fed's interest rate cut in September can be regarded as a preventive one. There is a significant divergence between the Fed and the market next year. The controversy over the Fed's independence will continue in October, and the US Supreme Court will start reviewing the legality of some tariffs in November. The US government faces a shutdown risk on October 1st, which may affect economic data release and market sentiment [2][22][27]. - In terms of major asset trends, stocks will mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to go long on dips; bonds have weak sentiment; the exchange rate will fluctuate within a range; and for gold, it is advisable to take a long - biased approach [3][28][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic: A New Round of Support Policies is Coming (1) The expectation of stable - growth policies resurfaces - The economic data in August was generally cold, with consumption weakening, production sluggish, and investment under pressure. To achieve the economic growth target, new stable - growth policies are necessary. The new policies may focus on debt limits and policy - based banks. The 500 billion in new policy - based financial instruments will be used to supplement project capital and support private enterprises' participation in the "Artificial Intelligence +" action [10][13]. (2) Has the "anti - involution" policy taken effect? - The "anti - involution" policy did not boost the "troika" of the economy but had an impact on PPI and industrial enterprise profits. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of PPI increased from - 3.6% in July to - 2.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits soared from - 1.5% in July to 20.4%. However, the recovery of PPI and industrial enterprise profits is also due to the low base last year [17][18]. Abroad: There is a Significant Divergence between the Fed and the Market Next Year - The Fed's interest rate cut in September was a preventive one. There is a difference between the Fed's and the market's expectations for the federal funds target rate next year. If the Fed remains data - dependent, the market's pricing may be incorrect, but the upcoming change of the Fed chairman adds uncertainty. The controversy over the Fed's independence will continue in October, and the US Supreme Court will review the legality of some tariffs in November. The US government faces a shutdown risk on October 1st, which may affect economic data release and market sentiment [21][23][27]. Major Asset Trends Outlook (1) Stocks: Mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to go long on dips - Since September, the strong upward trend of the equity market has been curbed, and the Shanghai Composite Index has generally fluctuated. The growth style leads, and the market risk appetite will be maintained due to new policy tools and the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. The general direction of the stock market is still upward, but the market may fluctuate in the short term [28]. (2) Bonds: Weak sentiment - The bond market continued to adjust in September. Factors such as the draft for soliciting opinions on fund fees, possible over - expected fiscal policies, and potential redemption pressure on the liability side of funds have suppressed the bond market. Although the overall view is bullish, short - term caution is needed [30]. (3) The RMB exchange rate will remain volatile - Since September, the domestic supporting factors for the RMB exchange rate have weakened, but the support from the current account and the capital account still exists. The US dollar index is the core variable. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, but in the long run, it is in a downward channel, and the RMB is still in an appreciation trend [34]. (4) Gold: It is advisable to take a long - biased approach - Gold showed strong performance in September. The Fed's interest rate cut, along with geopolitical issues, the controversy over the Fed's independence, and fiscal issues in various countries, supported the gold price. It is recommended to allocate 15 - 20% of the position to go long on gold [38].

商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 国庆长假将至，软商品减仓或空仓过节 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-09-30 报告内容摘要: 策略建议：观望为主 风险提示：全球贸易前景不明 [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5780.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5810.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 14950.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.4，涨跌幅 0.31%。美棉花收 65.4，涨跌幅-1.40%。 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 8981.0 张，涨跌幅为-5.10%；郑棉仓单 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 长假将要到来，软商品减仓观望 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-09-29 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5780.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5810.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 15050.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.35，涨跌幅 0.37%。美棉花收 66.33，涨跌幅 0.09%。 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 9464.0 张，涨跌幅为-3.36%；郑棉仓单 3397.0 张， 涨跌幅为-5.19%。 | ...

商品研究 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 新棉销售数据疲软，棉花短期承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-09-26 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5780.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5810.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 15000.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.29，涨跌幅 1.05%。美棉花收 66.27，涨跌幅 0.20%。 棉花——震荡 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 9793.0 张，涨跌幅为-0.62%；郑棉仓单 3583.0 张， 涨跌幅为-3 ...

| 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 商品研究 期货研究报告 新棉批量上市，棉花短期承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-09-25 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5780.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5800.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 15050.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.12，涨跌幅-0.25%。美棉花收 66.14，涨跌幅-0.71%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 9854.0 张，涨跌幅为-1.68%；郑棉仓单 3716.0 张， 涨跌幅为-5.0 ...

商品研究 | | | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受原油上涨提振，棉花短期有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-09-24 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5780.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5800.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 15150.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.16，涨跌幅 1.96%。美棉花收 66.61，涨跌幅 0.54%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 结论： 白糖：南方产区光热充足、雨水丰沛，甘蔗长势总体良好；新疆甜菜产区受 干旱影响，单产略有下降；内蒙古中西部地区降雨偏多，甜菜含糖分下降， 甜菜收获受影响，使得糖厂开机时间推迟 ...

[T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-09-23 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5800.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5820.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 15200.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 15.85，涨跌幅-2.04%。美棉花收 66.25，涨跌幅-0.08%。 棉花——震荡 商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受到供应前景压制，白糖短期震荡偏弱 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The price of cotton has bottom - support as the commercial inventory is decreasing and the peak season for cotton textile is coming. The strategy recommendation is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5840.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15250.0 yuan [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.13, with a change of 4.00%. US cotton closed at 66.92, with a change of - 0.39% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widened price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at high risk of heat damage. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, the cotton price has bottom - support [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 10629.0, with a change of - 3.27%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 4438.0, with a change of - 3.84% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: The sugarcane growth in southern producing areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected, which delays the sugar factory's start - up time. Brazil's sugar production progress has accelerated, and the market expects production to exceed consumption. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is revised down. The overall growth of cotton this season is better than last year. As the textile market enters the traditional peak season, cotton demand is expected to recover, and the price has the impetus to rise [3] Data Quick View - **Outer - market Quotes**: US sugar rose from 15.51 to 16.13, a 4.00% increase; US cotton fell from 67.18 to 66.92, a - 0.39% decrease [4] - **Spot Prices**: Nanning sugar spot price decreased from 5870.0 to 5840.0, a - 0.51% decrease; Kunming sugar spot price decreased from 5860.0 to 5850.0, a - 0.17% decrease; cotton index 328 increased from 3281 to 3280, a 0.06% increase; Xinjiang cotton spot price increased from 15200.0 to 15250.0, a 0.33% increase [4] - **Spread Quick View**: SR01 - 05 decreased by - 5.26%, SR05 - 09 increased by 100.00%, SR09 - 01 decreased by - 100.00%, CF01 - 05 remained unchanged, CF05 - 09 increased by 20.00%, CF09 - 01 increased by 27.27%. Sugar and cotton basis for different contracts also had corresponding changes [4] - **Import Prices**: Cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.1 [4] - **Profit Margins**: Sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1587.5 [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility and historical volatility of different sugar and cotton option contracts are given [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 10988.0 to 10629.0, a - 3.27% decrease; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 4615.0 to 4438.0, a - 3.84% decrease [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oscillation; Mid - short - term: Bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - Recent market fluctuations are mainly due to increased divergence between long and short sides after the market's fear of high prices. Since September, the market has adjusted slightly with daily trading volume above 2 trillion, indicating strong capital entry willingness. The current callback has no systemic risk, and a sharp decline can be an opportunity to add long positions. The IM contract's widened discount last week reflects cautious sentiment in the derivatives market. Short - term, the market will be in a wide - range oscillation. The market index is supported around the 20 - day moving average, and it's advisable to conduct high - selling and low - buying operations on IC and IF contracts within the "20 - day moving average support - previous high pressure" range. The Fed's 25bp interest rate cut may suppress the stock index sentiment. Mid - term, long positions can be arranged when the index adjusts to around the early - August level [3] Summary by Related Contents Macro Stock Market Information - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the restart after 9 months. China's State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce policies to expand service consumption, including selecting about 50 pilot cities, issuing policy documents, promoting AI application, and enhancing capital supply in the consumption field [5] Stock Index盘面 Review - In the previous trading day, A - shares oscillated upwards. The Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.17%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.61%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.96%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.95%. The diversified finance and motorcycle sectors led the rise, while precious metals and agriculture sectors lagged. Over 2,500 stocks rose, and 80 stocks hit the daily limit, with a poor profit - making effect. The daily - line shows high - level divergence and weakening upward momentum, while the weekly and monthly lines maintain an upward trend. The trading volume of A - shares remained flat at around 2.4 trillion, with a cooling trading enthusiasm but still at a historical high, indicating high capital entry willingness [5] Core Logic Summary - The recent market is not affected by additional events. The market fluctuates due to increased divergence between long and short sides after the market's fear of high prices. Since September, the market has adjusted slightly with daily trading volume above 2 trillion, indicating strong capital entry willingness. The current callback has no systemic risk, and a sharp decline can be an opportunity to add long positions. The IM contract's widened discount last week reflects cautious sentiment in the derivatives market. Short - term, the market will be in a wide - range oscillation. The market index is supported around the 20 - day moving average, and it's advisable to conduct high - selling and low - buying operations on IC and IF contracts within the "20 - day moving average support - previous high pressure" range. The Fed's 25bp interest rate cut may suppress the stock index sentiment. Mid - term, long positions can be arranged when the index adjusts to around the early - August level [3] Operation Suggestions - In futures operations, the short - term market is in a wide - range oscillation. Short - term traders can conduct high - selling and low - buying according to the above - mentioned range, and trend long positions should wait for further adjustment. The long IF and short IM portfolio can be appropriately liquidated for profit. In options operations, the implied volatility of stock index options rose yesterday, with the average IV of the CSI 300 current - month options at around 23%. It's okay to hold the current - month double - selling options until expiration, but attention should be paid to margin fluctuations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to summer cold drink demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the beet harvest in some areas has been affected, delaying the sugar mill start - up time. [1][3] - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textiles, the cotton price has bottom - support. The import of cotton is lower than expected, and the new - season cotton has generally grown better than last year. The cotton demand is expected to recover seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the price has the motivation to rise. [1][3] Summary According to Related Contents Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5870.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5860.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15200.0 yuan. [1] Futures Market - U.S. sugar closed at 15.51, with a change of - 2.33%. U.S. cotton closed at 67.18, with a change of - 0.72%. [1] - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 10988.0, with a change of - 2.48%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 4615.0, with a change of - 3.03%. [2] Data Comparison | Category | Item | 2025 - 09 - 16 | 2025 - 09 - 17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outer - market Quotes | U.S. sugar (USD) | 15.88 | 15.51 | - 2.33% | | | U.S. cotton (USD) | 67.67 | 67.18 | - 0.72% | | Spot Prices | Sugar (Nanning) | 5890.0 | 5870.0 | - 0.34% | | | Sugar (Kunming) | 5865.0 | 5860.0 | - 0.09% | | | Cotton Index 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.07% | | | Cotton (Xinjiang) | 15150.0 | 15200.0 | 0.33% | | Spread Overview | SR01 - 05 | 23.0 | 19.0 | - 17.39% | | | SR05 - 09 | - 6.0 | - 9.0 | 50.00% | | | SR09 - 01 | - 17.0 | - 10.0 | - 41.18% | | | CF01 - 05 | 35.0 | 40.0 | 14.29% | | | CF05 - 09 | - 155.0 | - 150.0 | - 3.23% | | | CF09 - 01 | 120.0 | 110.0 | - 8.33% | | | Sugar 01 basis | 318.0 | 331.0 | 4.09% | | | Sugar 05 basis | 341.0 | 350.0 | 2.64% | | | Sugar 09 basis | 335.0 | 341.0 | 1.79% | | | Cotton 01 basis | 1405.0 | 1420.0 | 1.07% | | | Cotton 05 basis | 1440.0 | 1460.0 | 1.39% | | | Cotton 09 basis | 1285.0 | 1310.0 | 1.95% | | Import Prices | Cotton cotlookA | 78.1 | 78.1 | 0.00% | | Profit Margins | Sugar import profit | 1587.5 | 1587.5 | 0.00% | | Options | SR601C5500 | 0.0875 | SR601 | 6.13 | | | SR601P5500 | 0.0855 | | | | | CF601C13800 | 0.1156 | CF601 | 6.82 | | | CF601P13800 | 0.1124 | | | | Inventory Warehouse Receipts (sheets) | Sugar | 11268.0 | 10988.0 | - 2.48% | | | Cotton | 4759.0 | 4615.0 | - 3.03% | [4] Strategy Suggestion - Mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [3]