JONJEE(600872) 国联证券·2024-07-02 06:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a current price of 23.55 CNY [2] Core Views - The company has undergone significant management changes and is now focusing on high-fresh soy sauce, which is expected to benefit from market growth trends. The new round of equity incentives aims to boost market confidence [3][4] - The company is actively enhancing its national distribution and improving channel quality, which is anticipated to lead to revenue growth [5] - Cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures are in progress, with significant potential for margin enhancement [5] Summary by Sections 1. Incentive Implementation and Reform Revival - The company has launched a stock incentive plan aimed at middle and senior management, with a total of 14.388 million shares to be granted at a price of 14.19 CNY per share. The plan includes performance targets related to revenue and profit growth [17][18] 2. Focus on High-Fresh Soy Sauce and Health Trends - The soy sauce market in China has grown from 29.994 billion CNY in 2011 to 65.857 billion CNY in 2022, with a CAGR of approximately 7.41%. High-fresh soy sauce is experiencing a CAGR of 11% from 2018 to 2023, outpacing the overall industry growth [3][21] - The company is developing a product matrix that includes zero-additive and reduced-salt products to align with health trends [27][29] 3. Management Changes and Channel Strengthening - The management restructuring is complete, with the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission regaining control. The new management team has extensive experience in consumer goods, which is expected to enhance the company's operations [4][31] - The company is implementing a market-oriented reform to improve organizational efficiency and sales team capabilities, aiming to increase the quality and quantity of distributors [5][36] 4. Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - The company has significant room for improvement in gross margins compared to peers. Ongoing reforms and automation initiatives are expected to optimize costs related to labor, transportation, and manufacturing [5][24] 5. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 5.775 billion CNY, 6.812 billion CNY, and 8.112 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.38%, 17.94%, and 19.08% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 770 million CNY, 1.010 billion CNY, and 1.214 billion CNY, with growth rates of -54.60%, 31.02%, and 20.25% respectively [6][14]