周度经济观察：债市波动加剧，趋势或难扭转

Demand and Economic Trends - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.5, indicating continued demand weakness and inventory accumulation[6] - Industrial profits in May showed a year-on-year increase of only 0.7%, down 3.3 percentage points from April, reflecting weak terminal demand[8] - The capacity utilization rate for industrial enterprises has significantly declined, suggesting worsening supply surplus and pressure on profit margins[11] Real Estate and Consumption - The real estate sector continues to slow down, with new home sales showing signs of recovery but sustainability remains uncertain[13] - Rental prices are under pressure, indicating that housing demand may be affected by consumption downgrade and demographic changes[16] Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - Recent central bank policies may increase volatility in the bond market, but do not indicate a fundamental upward trend in interest rates due to unchanged macroeconomic fundamentals[32] - The bond market is expected to experience differentiated performance across various maturities due to policy interventions, but the overall risk of a unilateral rise in yields is limited[26] Inflation and Global Economic Indicators - The latest U.S. PCE inflation data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, indicating a slow decline in inflationary pressures[34] - U.S. personal disposable income growth remains steady at 3.7%, while consumer spending growth is at 5.1%, suggesting resilient consumer activity despite signs of labor market cooling[37]