2026 年 02 月 26 日 敏华控股(01999.HK) 北美产能完善全球布局， 盈利能力持续修复 收购美国制造公司，完善北美产能布局 | 表现亮眼 | | | --- | --- | | 内外销稳步复苏，FY24 业绩 | 2024-05-23 | | 表现靓丽 | | | 上半财年盈利表现靓丽，内 | 2023-11-21 | | 外销恢复可期 | | | 盈利能力有所提升，内外销 | 2023-05-17 | | 有望逐步恢复 | | | 上半财年利润表现靓眼，渠 | 2022-11-17 | 2025 年 12 月 18 日，公司宣布以总代价约 5870 万美元（包含 3,200 万美元股权对价及约 2,670 万美元债务置换）收购一家美国本土家 居制造公司 100%的股权。目标集团旗下拥有专注功能沙发的 Southern Motion 及专注固定家具的 Fusion Furniture 两大成熟品 牌。本次收购获得约 1.88 亿美元营收增量的同时，获取了目标集团 位于美国密西西比州的 8 处生产设施，总面积超 200 万平方英尺。在 当前地缘政治与国际贸易环境变化的背景下，通过获得成熟的美国 ...

2026 年 02 月 26 日 亿帆医药(002019.SZ) 创新药主业稳健发展，泛酸钙价格处周 期底部 创新管线持续丰富且核心产品稳定放量，公司主业稳健发展： 公司坚定执行"创新、国际化"中长期发展规划，持续强化公司创新 管线布局，推动主业稳健发展。创新生物药亿立舒已取得阶段性成果， 在中国、美国、欧盟、巴西、阿曼和挪威等多个国家获准上市销售， 2025 年国内外累计发货量超 50 万支，同比增长超 80%。此外，公司 从尚德药缘引入拟用于治疗小细胞肺癌脑转移的 1 类创新药 ACT001， ACT001 是与放化疗及免疫治疗有协同作用的新一代免疫调节剂，通 过抑制癌症病灶组织微环境中相关细胞的 NF-κB 和 STAT3 信号通路， 降低肿瘤细胞 DNA 修复能力，以及对放化疗和免疫治疗的双重协同 作用，达到局部肿瘤控制和生存期延长的效果。 泛酸钙价格处于历史底部区间，后续价格改善值得期待 公司核心原料药产品为维生素 B5（泛酸钙），需求端得益于动物营养 和食品添加剂方面需求的稳定增长，泛酸钙全球市场规模稳步增长。 供给端格局较为集中，供给厂家主要包括亿帆医药、新发药业、帝斯 曼、巴斯夫、兄弟科技等。 ...

2026 年 02 月 25 日 稳健医疗(300888.SZ) 医疗消费双轮驱动提效， 国外线上双擎共拓增量 2026 年战略规划明确，"决胜增长"引领发展新阶段 公司 2026 年增长路径清晰，继续深化"医疗+消费"双轮驱动布局。 医疗板块方面，增长将主要由内生结构优化与外延并购整合共同 驱动。内生方面，公司正加速产品向高附加值领域迭代，战略重 心向毛利率更高的高端伤口敷料、手术室耗材等品类倾斜，有望 持续优化盈利结构。外延方面，2024 年收购的美国 GRI 公司将为 海外业务增长注入新动力，预计 2025 年全年并表将带来显著的收 入增量。目前渠道融合与供应链转产进展顺利，其成熟的海外渠 道网络与公司的产品矩阵形成良好互补，尤其有助于深化在美洲 市场的渗透。消费板块方面，增长的核心驱动力源于品牌势能下 的品类扩张与渠道深化。品类上，公司延续"大单品"策略，在巩固 棉柔巾等优势品类的同时，将资源聚焦于母婴、个护、贴身衣物 等高复购率场景，强化"全棉=稳健"的消费者心智。渠道上，公司 正积极适应渠道结构变迁，在稳固天猫、京东等传统货架电商基 本盘的同时，重点发力以抖音为代表的内容电商（前三季度增速 近 8 ...

PX：产量增幅有限，供需或仍偏紧 存量负荷提升空间或极为有限。PX 自 2024 年以来已连续两年无新增 产能，供应增量主要来源于存量技改及短流程提负。这一策略在 2024 年效果较为显著，调油逻辑走弱下炼厂开始"减油增芳烃"，PX 在当 年国内无新增产能的情况下，2024 年全年产量同比+12%。而进入 2025 年，尽管 MX 的供应仍在增加（产量同比+13%），PX 的产量增速却大 幅放缓（产量同比+1%），或侧面说明 PX 产能负荷已接近天花板，再 提升的空间较为有限。 2026 年 02 月 24 日 石油石化 大炼化系列一：聚酯链景气向上！ 引言：欧洲化工企业在高企的能源成本与环保合规成本的挤压 下，产能正在加速收缩，而中国企业正在凭借超级工厂的成本优 势，加速抢占市场份额，全球化工行业"东升西落"的态势日益 清晰。我国民营大炼化具备显著的规模效应，同时上下游配套齐 全，资产具备全球竞争力。站在当前时点，"PX-PTA-涤纶长丝" 产业链在供需格局改善的预期下有望率先展现弹性。 2026 年 PX 供需格局或仍偏紧。供给方面，2026 年 PX 新增投产规划 仍较少，仅华锦阿美一套装置（200 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company with a 12-month target price of 105.59 CNY, corresponding to a 50x PE for 2026 [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the domestic replacement of dynamic pressure oil film sliding bearings, with a strong focus on both domestic and international markets. The financial structure has been continuously optimized, with significant improvements in profitability and a reduction in debt levels post-IPO [1][4]. - The dynamic pressure oil film sliding bearing market is expected to grow significantly, driven by high demand in nuclear power, gas turbines, and wind energy sectors. The company is well-positioned to capture market share due to its competitive advantages and the conservative strategies of foreign competitors [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Founded in 2003, the company has established itself as a leader in the domestic replacement of high-end sliding bearings, achieving significant breakthroughs in key sectors such as nuclear power and marine applications. The company has developed over 200 specialized sliding bearing products [13]. - The core team is stable, with the founder holding a significant stake in the company, which enhances operational vitality. The team includes experienced professionals with extensive industry backgrounds [18][19]. 2. Market Potential - The global market for dynamic pressure oil film sliding bearings is projected to reach approximately 3.62 billion USD by 2026, with the Chinese market expected to be around 6.72 billion CNY. The growth is supported by trends in industrial drive, energy generation, and the increasing size of machinery [2][37]. - The company benefits from a favorable competitive landscape, as foreign competitors are adopting conservative growth strategies, providing more opportunities for domestic players [2][3]. 3. Business Development - The company is focusing on innovation and collaboration with foreign experts to enhance its product offerings. The shift towards international markets is evident, with an increasing proportion of revenue and improved gross margins from overseas clients [3][4]. - New business segments, including gas turbine bearings and PEEK bearings, are expected to contribute to revenue growth, with projections indicating continued market share expansion [3][4]. 4. Financial Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from 6.19 billion CNY in 2025 to 9.00 billion CNY in 2027, with net profits projected to increase from 1.35 billion CNY to 2.30 billion CNY during the same period. The company maintains a strong net profit margin and return on equity [5][4]. - The financial structure has improved significantly post-IPO, with a reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio to 14.0% in 2024, and all interest-bearing debts have been repaid [35].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the mechanical industry, particularly in the commercial aerospace sector, with a focus on 3D printing and key structural components [4]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a global compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7% from 2015 to 2024, and China's commercial aerospace sector showing an even higher CAGR of 22.5% during the same period [9][10]. - 3D printing technology is becoming a critical method for reducing costs and improving efficiency in commercial aerospace, particularly in the production of key components such as turbine pump casings and combustion chambers [2][36]. - The competition for low Earth orbit (LEO) resources is intensifying, with significant satellite frequency resource applications being made at a national strategic level, indicating a robust demand for satellite production and launch capabilities [1][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Commercial Aerospace Development - The commercial aerospace market is vast, with the U.S. and China leading in space resource allocation. The global aerospace economy reached $612 billion in 2024, with commercial aerospace revenues accounting for $480 billion [9][10]. - The trend is shifting towards reusable liquid-fueled rockets, which offer superior launch frequency and cost efficiency compared to single-use rockets [14][16]. - The limited availability of low Earth orbit resources is driving competition, with significant satellite constellations planned, including China's "Thousand Sails Constellation" and "GW Constellation" [19][20]. 2. 3D Printing as a Key Efficiency Tool - 3D printing is being increasingly utilized in the production of satellite phased array antennas and rocket engine components, significantly reducing production time and costs [2][22]. - The demand for metal 3D printing in commercial aerospace is expected to grow, with projections indicating an average annual market size of 19.3 billion to 25.4 billion yuan from 2031 to 2035, depending on the adoption rate of 3D printed components [2][36]. 3. Beneficiaries of the 3D Printing Industry Chain - Leading companies in the 3D printing sector, such as Platinum Technology and Huazhu High-Tech, are entering the commercial rocket and satellite supply chains, positioning themselves to benefit from the expanding market [3][38]. - The application of 3D printing technology is expected to drive demand for core components like galvanometers and lasers, with a focus on domestic alternatives as the technology matures [3][36].

Group 1 - The report highlights a high probability of style switching in A-shares around the Spring Festival, with a historical tendency for value and large-cap stocks to dominate before the festival, while growth and small-cap stocks tend to perform better afterward [1][8][23] - From 2010 to 2025, there were only two years (2020 and 2022) without a clear switch between growth and value styles, indicating a strong historical pattern of style rotation [8][18] - The report identifies that in 62.5% of the years analyzed, there was a significant switch from large-cap to small-cap stocks after the Spring Festival, suggesting a high likelihood of this trend continuing [1][8] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that the sectors leading in performance before the Spring Festival often do not repeat their success in the following month, indicating a high probability of sector rotation [2][8] - The report notes that in years where value stocks led after the Spring Festival (2011, 2016, 2021), there were common factors such as liquidity tightening or unexpected risk events that suppressed growth stocks [2][23] - The macro environment in 2015 and 2019, characterized by ample liquidity and weak fundamentals, is compared to the upcoming 2026 Spring Festival, suggesting potential for similar market dynamics [2][3] Group 3 - The report assesses that the current market style is shifting towards value before the 2026 Spring Festival, with technology and growth stocks receding [3][4] - It suggests that if the value style continues post-festival, it will be driven by expectations of domestic economic recovery and policy support, although there are concerns regarding inflation metrics [3][4] - The analysis indicates that the performance of small-cap stocks is expected to rebound significantly after the Spring Festival, driven by liquidity recovery and risk appetite [18][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 9.8 CNY over the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to face a decline in net profit for 2025, with estimates ranging from 4.21 to 6.32 million CNY, representing a year-on-year decrease of 85% to 90% [1]. - The decline in performance is attributed to industry pressures and insufficient recovery in core consumption scenarios, leading to an anticipated revenue drop of up to 13% for the year [2]. - The company is focusing on product iteration and channel development, targeting the mass consumer market with new product launches and enhancing brand engagement through marketing initiatives [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of over 211 million CNY for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decline of less than 21.14% [1]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are -13.0%, 4.5%, and 7.1%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be -94.5%, 765.6%, and 97.6% [5][10]. Market Strategy - The company is shifting its marketing strategy from broad campaigns to targeted empowerment, utilizing events and promotions to strengthen consumer connections and drive sales [3]. - New product lines, such as the 28-degree lemon-flavored and 43-degree sherry barley wines, are aimed at capturing younger consumers and expanding the customer base [3]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company is expected to leverage its established brand and market presence to increase market share as the industry recovers [4]. - The company is also making strides in international markets, with its Tashi barley wine entering trial sales in the U.S. Costco [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company, with a 6-month target price of 95.84 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 86.31 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company, Haomai Technology, is a leader in the tire mold industry and has diversified into large castings, CNC machine tools, and electric heating vulcanizers, benefiting from the synergy between casting and machining [1][17]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.0% in revenue and 18.3% in net profit from 2008 to 2024, demonstrating resilience across economic cycles [1][38]. - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in its tire mold business due to the increasing capital expenditures of domestic tire manufacturers and the expansion of overseas production [2]. - The large component machinery segment is poised to benefit from the favorable market conditions in gas turbines and wind power, with significant capacity expansions planned [3]. - The CNC machine tool business is focusing on high-end five-axis machines, showing rapid growth with a projected revenue increase of 145.1% in the first half of 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Haomai Technology started in the tire mold industry and has expanded into castings, CNC machine tools, and electric heating vulcanizers, establishing a long-term growth trajectory [17]. - The company has a global market share of over 30% in tire molds as of 2025, supported by strong R&D capabilities and cost advantages [2][17]. Tire Molds - The tire mold segment is a critical low-value consumable in the tire industry, with high demand for supplier know-how and brand reputation [2]. - The company has seen high growth in its tire mold business due to the rapid iteration of tire products and increased capital spending by tire manufacturers [2]. Large Component Machinery - The large component machinery business focuses on castings for wind power and gas turbines, benefiting from strong demand in North America and planned capacity expansions [3]. - The company is set to increase its casting capacity significantly, with new projects underway [3]. CNC Machine Tools - The company is concentrating on high-end five-axis machine tools, with a comprehensive product line that includes vertical and horizontal machining centers [4]. - The CNC machine tool segment is experiencing rapid growth, with revenues expected to reach 5.1 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, marking a 145.1% year-on-year increase [4]. Vulcanizers - The electric heating vulcanizer segment is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing demand for efficient and environmentally friendly tire production methods [11]. - The global market for vulcanizers is projected to grow from 1.238 billion USD in 2024 to 1.629 billion USD by 2031 [11]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 110.1 billion CNY, 135.4 billion CNY, and 161.4 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 24.6 billion CNY, 30.7 billion CNY, and 35.3 billion CNY [12]. - The report anticipates a continuous improvement in market share and profitability across all business segments [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 48.51 yuan, maintaining the rating [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's main business has shown remarkable growth, with PMC Ultra Bright series revenue increasing by 53.7% year-on-year. The three star products account for 56.3% of the revenue from regular lenses, and the upgraded 1.74 series lenses saw a 112.4% increase in sales year-on-year [2]. - The company has established strategic partnerships, including becoming a partner with China Aerospace and collaborating with Aier Eye Hospital, which enhances its market position [2]. - The company is also benefiting from the growth of AI glasses, with government subsidies expected to accelerate market penetration. The first batch of 625 billion yuan in subsidies will provide a 15% subsidy for AI glasses priced at or below 6000 yuan, significantly lowering the consumer price threshold [3]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.35 billion yuan, 9.25 billion yuan, and 10.26 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.43%, 10.70%, and 11.00% respectively. The net profit is expected to be 2.01 billion yuan, 2.27 billion yuan, and 2.60 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 13.54%, 13.27%, and 14.53% [6][8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.00 yuan in 2025 to 1.29 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 40.2x, 35.5x, and 31.0x for the years 2025 to 2027 [8][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has positioned itself as the exclusive optical partner for Xiaomi's AI glasses, with cumulative revenue from this partnership reaching 6.51 million yuan. This collaboration has significantly improved the profitability of individual products [2]. - The innovative OMO (Online-Merge-Offline) model has been implemented, providing comprehensive services in over 400 selected stores nationwide, which has enhanced conversion efficiency and attracted interest from other brands seeking to replicate this model [2][6].