宏观研究报告：市场最终选择了“强美元”

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield unexpectedly rose, surpassing 4.3%, influenced by higher-than-expected Australian inflation data[4] - Australia's May CPI inflation rate was reported at 4.0%, exceeding the market expectation of 3.8% and the previous value of 3.6%[4] - The rise in Australian inflation led to a reversal in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with speculation of potential rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia[9] Group 2: Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index has been climbing, putting significant pressure on other currencies, with the Japanese yen falling to 160.82 per dollar, the lowest since 1986[17] - The offshore Chinese yuan also weakened, briefly falling below 7.30 against the dollar[4] - The dollar's strength is attributed to political uncertainties in Europe, particularly regarding the upcoming French elections[10] Group 3: Market Trends - Historically, the U.S. dollar index tends to perform strongly in the third quarter and weakens in the fourth quarter, raising questions about future trends as the third quarter of 2024 approaches[5] - The rise in long-term interest rates indicates that bond traders are beginning to price in new variables, despite a lack of significant data releases[14]