Streamax(002970) 财通证券·2024-07-02 10:22Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target price of 37.45 RMB per share [14] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the global commercial vehicle intelligence sector, with a strong presence in fleet video management systems, ranking first globally in 2023 [25] - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 2.16 billion, 2.76 billion, and 3.50 billion RMB for 2024-2026, and net profits of 203 million, 277 million, and 378 million RMB, respectively [18] - The company's overseas expansion, particularly in Europe, is expected to drive growth, with new regulations in the EU creating a market demand of approximately 500,000 sets of intelligent solutions annually, worth 1-1.5 billion USD [17][78] Business Overview - The company operates in four main business segments: transportation (freight, logistics, fleet operators), travel (public transport, taxis, school buses), pre-installation, and innovation [25] - In 2023, the transportation segment contributed 708 million RMB in revenue with a gross margin of 47.84%, while the travel segment contributed 674 million RMB with a gross margin of 47.87% [54][37] - The company's innovation business, focusing on low-speed autonomous driving and mining safety, generated 62 million RMB in revenue in 2023 [37] Global Expansion - The company has established a fully automated smart manufacturing factory in Vietnam, which began operations in 2023 and is expected to produce all products for major European and American markets by the end of 2024 [3] - Overseas revenue accounted for 59.38% of total revenue in 2023, with significant growth in Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America [57] - The company has 8 subsidiaries and 8 offices overseas, with a local employee ratio exceeding 30% in overseas regions [57] Technology and Product Development - The company's products are based on AI, IoT, and big data technologies, offering solutions for freight, public transport, taxis, and school buses [64] - Key products include in-vehicle monitoring systems, AI-based driver behavior monitoring, and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) [65] - The company has developed a three-tier R&D architecture, with a technology platform reuse rate exceeding 80%, leading to improved R&D efficiency [59] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27.2% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins improving from 44.8% in 2024 to 46.8% in 2026 [82] - The transportation and travel segments are expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% and 29%, respectively, driven by overseas demand [106] - The company's expense ratio is projected to decline, with sales and management expense ratios expected to decrease to 10.5% by 2026 [83] Market Opportunities - The global commercial vehicle intelligence market is estimated to be worth 27 billion USD, with the company well-positioned to capture a significant share due to its advanced product offerings [99] - The EU's Vision Zero initiative and new safety regulations are expected to create substantial demand for the company's products, particularly in Europe [77][78]